Reports
28 September 2017

3D printing: a threat to global trade

3D printing could cut world trade by a quarter in little over forty years. Its extraordinary potential impact is huge.

Executive summary

  • 3D printing is still in its infancy. For now, it has very little effect on cross-border trade.
  • This will change once high-speed 3D printing makes mass production with 3D printers economically viable. The first technical steps have already been taken.
  • 3D printing will lead to less trade growth because 3D printers use far less labour, reducing the need to import intermediate and final goods from low-wage countries.
  • It is tricky to define the exact potential of 3D printing, but some experts expect a share of 50% in manufacturing over the next two decades. Tentative calculations show that, if the current growth of investment in 3D printers continues, 50% of manufactured goods will be printed in 2060 in scenario I, with this figure possibly being achieved as early as 2040 in scenario II in which investment doubles every five years.
  • This is estimated to wipe out almost one-quarter of world trade by 2060 under scenario I (or two-fifths by 2040 under scenario II).
  • Automotive, industrial machinery and consumer products are the industries that, as a result of 3D printing, will take the lead in suppressing cross-border trade These industries are top investors in 3D printers and are large players in world trade.
  • In automotive, the dominant bilateral trade flows are exports from Mexico, Japan, Germany and Canada to the US. So these flows will be most affected by 3D printing.
  • Locally printed car parts will increase jobs at US-based automotive factories.
  • In industrial machinery and consumer products, the largest bilateral export flows also have the US as their main destination. China is the main origin country.
  • The direction of flows in the most important 3D printing industries will lower US trade deficits with Mexico and Germany (automotive) and China (machines, consumer products), all large contributors to the US trade deficit.
  • Less trade means that countries with trade deficits in manufacturing will see deficits decline. This will be more pronounced for countries that import relatively many products from leading industries in 3D printing. Countries with a surplus in manufacturing trade will see their surpluses shrink, especially if they currently export many products that will be 3D printed in the near future.

Disclaimer

"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.

This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.

The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.

Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.

ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).