Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

Latest forecast update: 17 April 2024

Growth (GDP)

QoQ% Annualised 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
US 2.5 1.9 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.4 1.3
Japan 0.8 4.0 3.2 0.8 1.9 1.3 1.1
Germany 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.9
France 0.0 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.3
UK 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.4 1.3
Italy 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 1.0
Canada 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 1.5
Australia 0.4 1.2 1.6 2.4 2.1 1.1 2.4
               
Eurozone 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.4 1.4
Austria 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.6 -1.0 0.1 1.5
Spain 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.2
Netherlands 1.6 0.8 1.3 1.7 0.1 0.7 1.3
Belgium 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.4
Greece 1.3 1.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.4 2.0
Portugal 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.2
Switzerland 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.3
Sweden 3.2 -0.7 1.2 1.4 0.0 0.6 1.3
Norway 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.2 1.9
               
%YoY 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
               
Bulgaria 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.5 1.8 2.9 3.3
Croatia 4.1 3.3 3.3 2.4 2.8 3.3 2.7
Czech Republic 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.0 -0.2 1.2 2.2
Hungary 1.1 2.1 2.1 3.0 -0.9 2.1 3.8
Poland 2.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 0.2 3.0 3.5
Romania 2.8 2.3 2.2 3.5 2.1 2.8 3.0
Turkey 4.8 3.2 2.5 1.8 4.5 3.0 3.5
Serbia 4.2 3.4 2.8 2.7 2.5 3.5 3.5
               
Azerbaijan 4.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.1 2.5 2.7
Kazakhstan 4.5 3.8 5.0 4.5 5.1 4.5 5.0
Russia 4.0 1.3 0.0 0.5 3.6 1.5 1.0
Ukraine 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.7 4.5 3.5 5.0
               
China 4.7 5.4 4.6 4.7 5.2 4.8 4.4
India 5.8 7.3 7.4 6.4 7.7 6.7 7.2
Indonesia 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.2
Korea 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.7
Philippines 5.9 6.3 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.1
Singapore 3.2 2.0 2.8 2.3 1.1 2.5 2.6
Taiwan 5.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.4 3.1 2.4

Inflation (CPI)

Developed Markets (%YoY) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
US 3.2 3.5 3.0 2.7 4.1 3.1 2.0
Japan 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.9 3.3 2.3 1.7
Germany 2.7 2.2 1.9 2.3 6.0 2.3 2.2
France 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.4 5.7 2.8 2.0
UK 3.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 7.4 2.1 1.9
Italy 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.2 6.0 1.6 1.9
Canada 2.8 2.1 1.7 2.1 3.8 2.2 2.0
Australia 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.3 5.6 3.5 2.8
               
Eurozone 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.2 5.5 2.4 2.1
Austria 4.2 3.2 2.9 2.3 7.8 3.1 2.1
Spain 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.6 3.2 2.2
Netherlands 3.0 2.4 1.8 2.2 4.1 2.3 2.5
Belgium 2.7 2.6 3.1 2.4 4.0 2.7 2.1
Greece 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.4 4.2 2.7 1.9
Portugal 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.5 4.4 2.5 2.1
Switzerland 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 2.1 1.1 1.1
Sweden 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 6.1 2.2 2.2
Norway 4.4 2.9 3.2 2.8 5.5 3.3 2.5
               
Bulgaria 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.5 9.6 3.2 4.1
Croatia 4.0 3.0 1.8 2.4 8.0 2.7 2.6
Czech Republic 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 10.8 1.9 2.0
Hungary 3.7 4.3 4.5 5.5 17.6 4.5 4.2
Poland 2.8 3.1 4.2 4.5 11.4 3.7 3.6
Romania 7.2 6.0 5.3 4.8 10.5 5.8 4.1
Turkey 68.5 74.0 47.2 43.2 53.9 58.0 28.6
Serbia 5.7 4.5 4.1 4.0 12.5 4.6 4.3
               
Azerbaijan 4.2 1.2 2.7 4.2 8.9 3.1 3.8
Kazakhstan 9.6 9.0 8.6 8.1 14.8 8.8 7.4
Russia 7.6 7.6 6.7 5.4 5.9 6.8 4.4
Ukraine 5.5 6.0 8.0 9.5 11.7 8.1 7.3
               
China 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 0.2 0.8 2.0
India 5.1 5.0 4.2 4.5 5.7 4.7 4.7
Indonesia 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.9 3.2 3.5
Korea 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.4 3.6 2.5 1.5
Philippines 3.3 4.2 3.6 3.2 6.1 3.6 3.5
Singapore 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.1 4.0 3.3 2.8
Taiwan 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.9 2.5 2.4 1.5
*Quarterly forecasts are quarterly average; yearly forecasts are average over the year. HICP for European Union economies              
               
 

Policy rates

G10 (%) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
US (upper bound) 5.50 5.25 4.75 4.25 3.50
Eurozone (deposit rate) 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.50
Japan (upper bound) 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
UK 5.25 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.25
Switzerland 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Sweden 3.75 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00
Norway 4.50 4.25 3.75 3.25 3.00
Canada 4.75 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.25
Australia 4.35 4.10 3.85 3.60 3.60
           
EMEA (%) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
Czech Republic 4.75 4.00 3.50 3.00 3.00
Hungary 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 5.00
Poland 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.25 4.75
Romania 6.75 6.50 6.50 6.00 5.50
Turkey 50.00 50.00 47.50 40.00 30.00
Serbia 6.30 5.80 5.50 5.50 5.00
           
Azerbaijan 7.00 7.00 7.00 6.75 6.00
Kazakhstan 14.00 13.25 12.50 12.00 11.00
Russia 15.50 14.50 13.00 12.00 9.00
Ukraine 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 12.00
           
Asia (%) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
China (1Y LPR) 3.45 3.35 3.25 3.15 3.05
India 6.50 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.50
Indonesia 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.50 5.00
Korea 3.50 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00
Philippines 6.50 6.25 6.00 6.00 5.50
Taiwan 2.00 2.00 1.85 1.85 1.85

3 month rates

G10 (%) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
US 5.40 5.20 4.70 4.20 3.70 3.40
Eurozone 3.70 3.40 3.10 2.90 2.75 2.50
Japan 0.40 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.25
UK 5.05 4.55 4.15 3.60 3.20 3.20
Switzerland 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Canada 4.90 4.60 4.10 3.60 3.60 3.60
Australia 4.40 4.15 3.90 3.65 3.40 3.50
             
EMEA (%) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
Czech Republic 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.05 3.10 3.10
Hungary 6.51 6.25 6.25 6.15 5.55 5.00
Poland 5.85 5.85 5.74 5.40 5.22 4.92
Romania 5.60 5.55 5.55 5.00 4.90 4.80
Turkey 48.50 48.40 45.60 41.40 35.50 30.80
Serbia 5.60 5.10 4.80 4.80 4.30 4.30
             
Kazakhstan 14.20 13.45 12.70 12.20 11.70 11.20
Russia 15.25 14.20 12.70 11.50 10.50 8.50
             
Asia (%) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
China* 2.12 2.10 2.00 1.95 1.95 1.90
India 7.15 6.90 6.65 6.40 6.25 5.75
Indonesia 6.98 6.73 6.48 6.23 6.30 6.00
Korea 3.50 3.30 3.25 3.20 3.25 3.25
Philippines* 5.50 5.30 5.10 5.00 5.20 4.75
Singapore 4.00 3.85 3.70 3.50 3.20 2.50
Taiwan* 1.60 1.55 1.55 1.50 1.50 1.40

10-year yields

G10 (%) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
US: Fed funds 5.50 5.25 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.50
3M 5.40 5.20 4.70 4.20 3.70 3.40
2Y 4.90 4.05 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40
5Y 4.75 3.95 3.40 3.55 3.70 3.85
10Y 4.75 4.00 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25
30Y 4.85 4.20 3.90 4.15 4.40 4.65
             
ECB deposit* 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50
3M 3.70 3.40 3.10 2.90 2.75 2.50
2Y 2.65 2.40 2.35 2.35 2.30 2.35
5Y 2.30 2.10 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40
10Y 2.30 2.10 2.10 2.25 2.40 2.50
30Y 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.55 2.70 2.80
             
Japan 0.90 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 1.75
France 2.85 2.65 2.65 2.80 2.95 3.05
Italy 3.80 3.70 3.75 3.90 4.05 4.15
Spain 3.20 3.05 3.05 3.20 3.35 3.45
UK 4.10 3.60 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.60
Netherlands 2.65 2.45 2.45 2.60 2.75 2.85
Belgium 2.90 2.75 2.75 2.90 3.05 3.15
Austria 2.85 2.65 2.65 2.80 2.95 3.05
Ireland 2.75 2.55 2.55 2.70 2.85 2.95
Portugal 3.05 2.90 2.90 3.05 3.20 3.30
Switzerland 0.70 0.60 0.60 0.75 1.00 1.10
Sweden 2.40 2.20 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.70
Norway 4.00 3.25 3.00 3.55 3.75 3.75
Finland 2.85 2.65 2.65 2.80 2.95 3.05
Canada 3.90 3.50 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.75
Australia 3.75 3.60 3.60 3.75 4.00 4.00
             
EMEA (%) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
Bulgaria 4.70 4.60 4.40 4.30 4.10 4.00
Czech Republic 4.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Hungary 6.35 6.25 6.10 6.15 5.90 5.70
Poland 5.60 5.55 5.42 5.25 4.99 4.82
Romania 6.40 6.20 6.40 6.70 5.80 5.70
Russia 13.00 12.70 12.50 11.50 10.70 8.30
Turkey 28.70 26.70 23.90 20.60 20.00 18.00
             
Asia (%) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
China 2.35 2.40 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.45
India 6.80 6.50 6.20 6.40 6.60 6.80
Indonesia 6.80 6.70 6.60 6.50 6.30 6.00
Korea 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.50 3.50 4.00
Philippines 6.40 6.20 6.10 6.00 5.90 5.50
Singapore 3.40 3.40 3.15 3.00 2.80 2.30
Taiwan 1.35 1.25 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.25
*Apart from ECB deposit rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields

FX

G10 (End period)   2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
Euro EUR/USD 1.08 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10
Japan USD/JPY 150 143 138 140 142
UK GBP/USD 1.26 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.25
Japan EUR/JPY 162.00 157.30 151.80 154.00 156.20
UK EUR/GBP 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88
Canada USD/CAD 1.34 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.30
Australia AUD/USD 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.66
New Zealand NZD/USD 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62
             
Switzerland EUR/CHF 0.98 0.99 0.95 1.00 1.00
Sweden EUR/SEK 11.30 11.10 11.10 11.00 11.00
Norway EUR/NOK 11.40 11.10 11.10 11.00 10.90
Denmark EUR/DKK 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46
             
EMEA (End period)   2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
Serbia EUR/RSD 117.20 117.10 117.00 116.90 116.80
Czech Republic EUR/CZK 25.30 24.80 24.50 24.25 24.00
Hungary EUR/HUF 400.00 395.00 400.00 405.00 410.00
Poland EUR/PLN 4.20 4.22 4.25 4.29 4.31
Romania EUR/RON 4.98 4.98 5.03 5.03 5.09
Turkey USD/TRY 35.25 38.10 41.00    - 50.00
South Africa USD/ZAR 19.00 18.75 18.50 18.50 17.50
Israel USD/ILS 3.80 3.70 3.55 3.50 3.50
             
CIS (End period)   2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
Azerbaijan USD/AZN 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
Kazakhstan USD/KZT 455.00 460.00 465.00 475.00 500.00
Russia USD/RUB 92.00 97.00 105.00 100.00 110.00
  EUR/RUB 99.36 106.70 115.50 110.00 121.00
Ukraine USD/UAH 39.00 39.30 39.50 39.70 40.00
             
Latam (End period)   2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
Brazil USD/BRL 5.15 5.15 5.15 5.00 5.00
Mexico USD/MXN 16.75 16.75 16.50 16.25 16.00
Chile USD/CLP 975.00 950.00 850.00 825.00 800.00
             
Asia (End period)   2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
China USD/CNY 7.27 7.18 7.12 7.05 6.90
India USD/INR 83.00 83.00 82.50 83.00 83.00
Indonesia USD/IDR 16000 15700 15250 15100 14800
Korea USD/KRW 1330 1280 1320 1300 1280
Philippines USD/PHP 56.80 56.20 55.50 55.25 54.80
Singapore USD/SGD 1.35 1.33 1.30 1.28 1.26
Taiwan USD/TWD 32.40 32.20 31.00 30.70 29.50

Commodities

Oil and natural gas forecasts (avg) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 2024F 2025F
Brent ($/bbl) 87.0 88.0 85.0 86.0 80.0
Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) 25.0 25.0 35.0 28.0 29.0
Metal Forecasts (avg) 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 2024F 2025F
Copper ($/t) 9,050 9,000 9,100 8,922 9,150
Aluminium ($/t) 2,300 2,350 2,400 2,323 2,475
Nickel ($/t) 16,900 16,950 17,000 16,922 17,000
Zinc ($/t) 2,500 2,550 2,550 2,519 2,625
Lead ($/t) 2,100 2,100 2,200 2,122 2,125
Gold ($/oz) 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,206 2,310
Silver ($/oz) 25.50 26.00 26.50 25.30 26.00
Iron Ore ($/t) 100.00 105.00 100.00 106.00 101.00