THINK economic and financial analysis
THINK

Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

Latest forecast update: 5 June 2023

Growth (GDP)

Developed markets (QoQ% annualised growth)

  2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
US 2.0 -1.5 -2.2 -1.0 1.2 0.0 2.2
Japan 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2
Germany 1.2 0.2 -1.0 -1.1 -0.2 0.3 1.3
France 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.3
UK -0.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.3 1.1 1.5
Italy 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.1
Canada 1.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 1.5 0.5 2.2
Australia 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.8 1.8 3.1
               
Eurozone 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.4
Austria 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.4
Spain 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.9 1.0 1.8
Netherlands 2.2 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.0
Belgium 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.5
Greece 0.7 1.5 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.6
Portugal 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.7 2.7 1.1 1.8
Switzerland 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.4
Sweden -1.4 -0.1 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.5
Norway 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8

Emerging markets (YoY% growth)

  2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Bulgaria 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.4 1.7 3.1 3.5
Croatia 1.9 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.7
Hungary -1.2 0.7 2.2 3.1 0.2 3.1 3.8
Poland 1.0 0.9 3.0 2.6 1.2 2.4 3.5
Romania 3.0 2.3 2.4 3.3 2.5 3.9 4.2
Turkey 5.0 1.7 0.0 1.5 2.5 3.0 4.0
Serbia 0.4 2.1 2.9 4.3 1.6 3.8 3.7
               
Russia 2.5 2.0 1.5 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Kazakhstan 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.5 4.7 4.0 4.0
Azerbaijan 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.0 2.0 2.5 2.7
               
China 8.8 5.0 4.6 4.2 5.7 4.7 5.1
India 7.8 6.7 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.6 7.4
Indonesia 4.2 4.6 4.7 5.0 4.6 4.9 5.0
Korea 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.8 2.0 2.3
Philippines 5.0 4.8 4.5 5.3 5.2 5.5 6.0
Singapore 2.2 2.3 2.5 3.4 1.9 3.1 3.0
               

Inflation (CPI)

%YoY 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
US 4.2 3.5 2.8 2.2 2.8 2.0 2.3
Japan 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3
Germany 6.9 6.6 4.4 4.1 6.6 3.1 2.0
France 7.0 5.6 4.0 4.0 5.9 2.8 1.6
UK 8.2 6.2 4.1 3.3 4.1 1.7 2.1
Italy 7.7 5.7 2.8 3.3 6.5 2.4 1.9
Canada 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.8 2.1 2.0
Australia 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.8 1.8 3.1
               
Eurozone 6.9 3.8 3.0 2.6 5.4 2.5 2.0
Austria 7.9 4.9 3.8 3.0 6.8 2.4 2.0
Spain 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.7 2.6 2.1
Netherlands 6.0 2.6 1.2 2.8 4.1 1.8 1.4
Belgium 5.2 4.4 3.6 3.2 5.2 2.7 2.1
Greece 3.8 2.8 3.1 2.7 4.0 2.3 1.9
Portugal 5.0 3.8 3.5 2.9 5.1 2.5 1.9
Switzerland 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.6 1.7 1.5
Sweden 7.0 5.0 2.9 2.0 5.4 2.0 1.8
Norway 5.8 4.5 3.9 3.7 5.2 3.6 2.5
               
Bulgaria 10.8 9.6 8.9 7.1 11.1 6.5 4.0
Croatia 7.8 5.7 4.4 4.0 7.4 4.3 3.0
Hungary 22.6 17.5 11.1 6.8 19.2 5.1 3.1
Poland 12.0 10.4 7.9 7.0 12.1 6.1 4.0
Romania 10.6 9.0 7.2 6.5 10.5 5.3 4.0
Turkey 40.4 40.9 48.3 45.3 45.7 40.3 23.2
Serbia 14.1 10.9 8.0 6.4 12.2 6.3 4.1
               
Russia 3.3 3.7 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.6
Kazakhstan 16.0 13.2 10.5 9.6 15.0 8.6 6.7
Azerbaijan 12.3 10.4 6.4 6.7 10.7 6.2 5.0
               
China 2.3 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.4 3.0
India 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.8 4.2 5.0
Indonesia 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.6 3.5 3.6
Korea 3.3 2.6 2.5 1.7 3.3 1.6 2.2
Philippines 5.5 4.9 3.8 4.1 5.6 3.9 3.5
Singapore 5.5 5.0 4.4 3.3 5.3 3.2 2.9
 

*Quarterly forecasts are quarterly average; yearly forecasts are average over the year. HICP for Eurozone economies

*The usual oil and natural gas forecasts have been moved to the commodity tab

Policy rates

(%) end period 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
US (upper bound) 5.25 5.25 4.25 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Eurozone (refi rate) 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00
Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25
UK 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.25 2.75
Switzerland 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50
Sweden 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50
Norway 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Canada 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00
Australia 4.10 4.10 3.85 3.35 2.85 2.85 3.10 3.60
                 
Hungary 13.00 13.00 11.50 8.00 6.75 6.00 6.00 5.00
Poland 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.50 5.75 5.00
Romania 7.00 7.00 7.00 6.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.00
Turkey 8.50 8.50 30.00 35.00 35.00 32.50 30.00 20.00
Serbia 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50
                 
Russia 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 6.50
Kazakhstan 16.75 16.00 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 11.00 9.00
Azerbaijan 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50 6.50
                 
China* 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.40
India 6.50 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.50
Indonesia 5.75 5.75 5.50 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.50 5.00
Korea 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.50 3.00
Philippines 6.25 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.25 5.25 4.50 4.00
Taiwan 1.88 1.88 1.63 1.50 1.38 1.25 1.25 1.25

*PBOC 7-day reverse repo rate

3 month rates

(%) end period 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
US SOFR 5.20 5.20 4.20 3.20 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Eurozone 3.60 3.80 3.70 3.60 3.30 3.10 2.90 2.80
Japan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.30
UK 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.65 4.15 3.60 3.10 2.70
Switzerland 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50
Canada 4.60 4.60 4.60 4.10 3.60 3.10 3.10 3.20
Australia 4.15 4.10 3.70 3.25 2.90 3.00 3.20 3.70
                 
Hungary 15.00 13.50 11.00 7.50 6.25 6.00 5.90 5.00
Poland 6.95 6.95 6.95 6.95 6.95 6.45 5.95 5.20
Romania 6.60 6.70 6.70 6.50 6.30 6.25 6.25 5.25
Turkey 16.00 23.15 33.00 35.40 34.90 31.80 29.20 22.00
Serbia 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.50 5.40 5.10 4.75 4.25
                 
Russia 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.00 6.50
Kazakhstan 17.75 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 10.00
                 
China* 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.95
India 6.65 6.60 5.90 5.40 5.10 5.15 5.15 5.65
Indonesia 5.80 5.85 5.70 5.90 5.85 5.75 5.60 6.00
Korea 3.50 3.40 3.10 2.90 2.75 2.50 2.60 3.10
Philippines* 5.95 5.70 5.60 5.40 5.30 5.10 5.00 5.50
Singapore 4.10 4.00 3.90 3.60 3.55 3.40 3.25 3.50
Taiwan* 1.49 1.49 1.24 1.12 0.99 0.87 0.87 0.87

*3-month Shanghai interbank rate for China; T-bill rate for the Philippines and CP rate for Taiwan; and 3-month interbank rates for others.

10-year yields

(%) end period 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
US: Fed funds 5.25 5.25 4.25 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
3M 5.20 5.20 4.20 3.20 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
2Y 4.50 3.90 3.30 3.10 2.95 3.00 3.00 3.10
5Y 4.05 3.55 3.05 3.05 3.00 3.00 3.15 3.60
10Y 4.00 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 4.00
30Y 4.10 3.80 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.65 4.40
                 
EU12: ECB refi* 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00
3M 3.60 3.80 3.70 3.60 3.30 3.10 2.90 2.80
2Y 2.85 2.65 2.55 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.50
5Y 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.35 2.45
10Y 2.50 2.30 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.20 2.50
30Y 2.65 2.45 2.40 2.30 2.35 2.35 2.50 2.80
                 
Japan 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
France 3.10 2.95 2.75 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.75 3.05
Italy 4.50 4.50 4.20 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.20 4.50
Spain 3.60 3.45 3.25 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.25 3.55
UK 4.20 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.10 3.50
Netherlands 2.85 2.65 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.80
Belgium 3.15 3.00 2.85 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.85 3.15
Austria 3.15 3.00 2.85 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.85 3.15
Ireland 3.00 2.80 2.65 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.65 2.95
Portugal 3.40 3.30 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.10 3.40
Switzerland 1.20 1.15 1.15 1.10 1.10 1.15 1.30 1.60
Sweden 2.50 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.80
Norway 3.60 3.20 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.00 3.25 4.00
Finland 3.15 3.00 2.85 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.85 3.15
Canada 3.50 3.40 3.20 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.75
Australia 3.60 3.30 3.25 3.20 3.00 2.90 3.20 3.40
                 
Bulgaria 4.60 4.90 5.00 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.50 4.25
Hungary 7.60 7.25 7.05 7.05 7.00 6.80 6.75 6.25
Poland 6.00 6.10 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.90 5.75 5.40
Romania 7.10 7.15 7.15 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.90 6.25
Russia 10.80 10.90 11.00 10.90 11.00 11.00 10.90 9.50
Turkey 14.40 19.30 28.30 27.70 27.50 26.80 26.60 23.50
                 
China 3.00 3.15 3.20 3.35 3.50 3.65 3.80 4.25
India 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 6.70 6.60 6.60 6.90
Indonesia 6.50 6.40 6.40 6.20 6.30 6.40 6.20 6.50
Korea 3.50 3.30 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.10 3.25 3.00
Philippines 5.90 5.75 5.50 5.80 5.50 5.80 5.70 6.00
Singapore 2.80 2.50 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.10 2.25 2.00
Taiwan 1.20 1.20 0.95 0.83 0.70 0.58 0.58 0.58

*Apart from ECB refi rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields

FX

end period   2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
Euro EUR/USD 1.08 1.13 1.18 1.20 1.17 1.15 1.15 1.15
Japan USD/JPY 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 120.0 118.0 115.0 115.0
UK GBP/USD 1.24 1.28 1.33 1.35 1.33 1.31 1.31 1.31
Japan EUR/JPY 146.00 147.00 148.00 144.00 138.00 132.25 132.25 132.25
UK EUR/GBP 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88
Canada USD/CAD 1.35 1.30 1.28 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
Australia AUD/USD 0.67 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.75
New Zealand NZD/USD 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.68
                   
Switzerland EUR/CHF 0.97 0.96 0.97 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Sweden EUR/SEK 11.65 11.40 11.15 11.00 10.90 10.80 10.80 10.50
Norway EUR/NOK 11.80 11.40 11.00 10.80 10.70 10.30 10.30 9.70
Denmark EUR/DKK 7.45 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46
                   
Serbia EUR/RSD 117.29 117.30 117.31 117.30 117.31 117.33 117.34 117.29
Hungary EUR/HUF 370 378 372 368 365 365 370 370
Poland EUR/PLN 4.50 4.43 4.45 4.48 4.52 4.52 4.51 4.50
Romania EUR/RON 4.98 4.97 5.02 5.02 5.05 5.05 5.09 5.15
Turkey USD/TRY 21.50 25.00 26.00 27.60 28.40 28.80 29.00 32.00
South Africa USD/ZAR 19.50 19.00 18.50 18.00 17.75 17.50 17.00 17.00
Israel USD/ILS 3.75 3.70 3.60 3.50 3.40 3.30 3.20 3.00
                   
Russia USD/RUB 78.00 81.00 85.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 95.00 100.00
  EUR/RUB 85.80 93.15 102.00 96.00 99.45 103.50 109.25 115.00
Kazakhstan USD/KZT 455.00 460.00 465.00 470.00 470.00 475.00 480.00 500.00
Azerbaijan USD/AZN 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
                   
Brazil USD/BRL 5.10 5.20 5.20 5.25 5.30 5.40 5.50 5.50
Mexico USD/MXN 17.50 17.25 17.00 16.75 16.50 16.25 16.00 16.00
Chile USD/CLP 820.0 800.0 800.0 800.0 800.0 800.0 800.0 800.0
                   
China USD/CNY 6.90 6.75 6.60 6.45 6.35 6.30 6.40 6.20
India USD/INR 82.00 81.00 80.00 82.00 83.00 84.00 84.00 85.00
Indonesia USD/IDR 14850 14600 14500 14550 14300 14600 14900 14750
Korea USD/KRW 1280 1230 1280 1200 1180 1180 1150 1150
Philippines USD/PHP 55.90 55.30 54.80 54.10 54.50 54.80 54.20 52.50
Singapore USD/SGD 1.35 1.32 1.30 1.31 1.30 1.31 1.30 1.32
Taiwan USD/TWD 30.70 30.50 29.00 28.50 27.80 27.30 28.50 27.50

Commodities

Oil and Natural Gas Forecasts (avg)

  2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Brent ($/bbl) 84.0 93.0 99.0 95.0 90.0 89.0 75.0
Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) 35.0 32.0 50.0 60.0 43.0 52.0 50.0

Metal Forecasts (avg)

  2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Copper ($/tonne) 8400 8300 8500 8700 8500 8850 9300  
Aluminium ($/tonne) 2300 2400.0 2450 2550 2400 2650 2800  
Nickel ($/tonne) 22000 21000 20000 20000 22250 20000 23000  
Zinc ($/tonne) 2550 2500 2650 2700 2700 2800 2900  
Lead ($/tonne) 2110 2100 2150 2200 2100 2150 2100  
Gold ($/Oz) 2000 2050 2100 2100 2010 2100 2000  
Silver ($/Oz) 25.0 25.0 26.0 26.0 24.5 25.5 24.0  
Iron Ore ($/tonne) 100.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 106.0 95.0 90.0  

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June 2023 Forecast

Update: 2 June 2023