Forecasts
Our global economic and financial forecasts
Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.
Growth (GDP)
Last updated: 6th August
| QoQ% Annualised (avg) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Japan | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Germany | -0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| France | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| UK | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Italy | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Canada | 1.0 | -0.6 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Australia | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Eurozone | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Austria | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Spain | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | - |
| Netherlands | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | - |
| Belgium | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | - |
| Greece | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Portugal | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | - |
| Switzerland | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | - |
| Sweden | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| YoY% (avg) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Croatia | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Czech Republic | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Hungary | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Poland | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| Romania | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Turkey | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| Serbia | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Azerbaijan | 3.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Kazakhstan | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Russia | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Ukraine | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | - |
| China | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| India | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.5 |
| Indonesia | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Korea | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Philippines | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Singapore | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Taiwan | 8.0 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
Inflation (CPI)
Last updated: 6th August
| YoY% (avg) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Japan | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Germany | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| France | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| UK | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Italy | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Canada | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Australia | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Eurozone | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Austria | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Spain | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| Netherlands | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | - |
| Belgium | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | - |
| Greece | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Portugal | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| Switzerland | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.7 | - |
| Sweden | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Bulgaria | 3.9 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Croatia | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Czech Republic | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Hungary | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Poland | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Romania | 5.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 |
| Turkey | 35.0 | 30.5 | 29.5 | 25.5 | 22.4 | 21.1 | 19.4 | 34.0 | 22.5 | 17.0 |
| Serbia | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| Azerbaijan | 6.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 8.9 |
| Kazakhstan | 11.3 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 6.7 |
| Russia | 9.8 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 4.9 |
| Ukraine | 14.0 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 12.0 | 6.6 | - |
| China | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| India | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| Indonesia | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Korea | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Philippines | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Singapore | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Taiwan | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
Policy rates
Last updated: 6th August
| G10 (%, eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (upper bound) | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Eurozone (deposit rate) | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.25 |
| Japan (upper bound) | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| UK | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Switzerland | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | - | - | - |
| Sweden | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Norway | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Canada | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Australia | 3.60 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| EMEA (%, eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
| Czech Republic | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Hungary | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| Poland | 4.75 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.25 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Romania | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| Turkey | 40.00 | 35.00 | 31.00 | 27.50 | 25.00 | 23.00 | 35.00 | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| Serbia | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 5.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Azerbaijan | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.25 | 7.75 | 7.00 | 7.75 | 10.25 |
| Kazakhstan | 17.00 | 17.50 | 17.50 | 17.50 | 17.00 | 16.00 | 17.50 | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| Russia | 17.00 | 16.00 | 15.00 | 14.00 | 13.00 | 12.00 | 16.00 | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| Ukraine | 15.50 | 14.50 | 13.50 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 12.00 | 14.50 | 12.00 | - |
| Asia (%, eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
| China (7 day reverse repo rate) | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| India | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Indonesia | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 5.25 |
| Korea | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Philippines | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Taiwan | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 2.00 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
3 month rates
Last updated: 6th August
| G10 (%, eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 4.20 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Eurozone | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 2.40 |
| Japan | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| UK | 3.95 | 3.70 | 3.45 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.70 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Switzerland | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.25 | - |
| Canada | 2.60 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 3.10 |
| Australia | 3.65 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| EMEA (%, eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
| Czech Republic | 3.57 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 4.22 |
| Hungary | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.10 | 5.85 | 5.60 | 5.35 | 6.50 | 5.35 | 4.35 |
| Poland | 4.59 | 4.25 | 3.70 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 4.25 | 3.63 | 3.63 |
| Romania | 6.25 | 5.95 | 5.85 | 5.35 | 4.95 | 4.90 | 5.95 | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| Turkey | 40.01 | 36.03 | 30.84 | 27.53 | 25.16 | 23.36 | 36.03 | 23.36 | 18.39 |
| Serbia | 4.50 | 4.30 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 4.30 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||
| Kazakhstan | 16.80 | 17.30 | 17.30 | 17.30 | 16.80 | 15.80 | 17.30 | 15.80 | 9.80 |
| Russia | 16.30 | 15.50 | 14.50 | 13.75 | 12.90 | 12.00 | 15.50 | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| Asia (%, eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
| China* | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| India | 6.55 | 6.30 | 6.10 | 6.10 | 6.10 | 6.10 | 6.30 | 6.10 | 6.50 |
| Indonesia | 6.20 | 6.20 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.20 | 6.00 | 6.50 |
| Korea | 2.52 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.27 | 2.10 | 2.25 |
| Philippines* | 4.80 | 4.60 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.40 | 4.25 | 4.75 |
| Singapore | 2.50 | 2.55 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.55 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| Taiwan* | 1.65 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
10-year yields
Last updated: 6th August
| G10 (%, eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US: Fed funds | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 3.25 | |
| 3M | 4.20 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 3.30 | |
| 2Y | 3.75 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 3.30 | |
| 5Y | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.70 | |
| 10Y | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 | |
| 30Y | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 5.05 | 4.80 | 4.80 | |
| ECB deposit* | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| 3M | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| 2Y | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 1.85 | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| 5Y | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.55 | 2.30 | 2.55 | 2.85 | |
| 10Y | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.20 | |
| 30Y | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.75 | |
| Japan | 1.60 | 1.65 | 1.70 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.65 | 1.80 | 2.25 | |
| France | 3.45 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.55 | 3.75 | 3.95 | |
| Italy | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 4.10 | |
| Spain | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.45 | 3.65 | 3.85 | |
| UK | 4.60 | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.30 | 4.30 | |
| Netherlands | 2.85 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.95 | 3.15 | 3.35 | |
| Belgium | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 3.80 | |
| Austria | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.60 | |
| Ireland | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.05 | 3.25 | 3.45 | |
| Portugal | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 3.45 | 3.65 | |
| Switzerland | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | - | |
| Sweden | 2.80 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.90 | 3.20 | 3.40 | |
| Finland | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 3.45 | 3.65 | |
| Canada | 3.40 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 4.00 | |
| Australia | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 4.00 | |
| EMEA (%, eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F | |
| Bulgaria | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.15 | |
| Czech Republic | 4.28 | 4.48 | 4.38 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 4.28 | ||||
| Hungary | 6.90 | 7.00 | 7.20 | 7.10 | 7.05 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 6.50 | |
| Poland | 5.30 | 5.20 | 4.83 | 4.60 | 4.53 | 4.54 | 5.20 | 4.54 | 4.55 | |
| Romania | 7.10 | 7.00 | 6.90 | 6.80 | 6.60 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 6.50 | 6.00 | |
| Russia | 13.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 11.00 | 12.00 | 11.00 | 7.00 | |
| Turkey | 27.58 | 25.33 | 22.81 | 20.59 | 20.02 | 18.43 | 25.33 | 18.43 | 14.60 | |
| Asia (%, eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F | |
| China | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 2.00 | |
| India | 6.25 | 6.10 | 6.10 | 6.10 | 6.20 | 6.20 | 6.10 | 6.20 | 6.50 | |
| Indonesia | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.40 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.50 | 6.30 | 6.60 | |
| Korea | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.75 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.80 | |
| Philippines | 5.75 | 5.60 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.60 | 5.50 | 6.00 | |
| Singapore | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Taiwan | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.60 |
FX
Last updated: 15th August
| G10 (eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | EUR/USD | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.22 | ||
| Japan | USD/JPY | 145 | 140 | 138 | 137 | 136 | 135 | ||
| UK | GBP/USD | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | ||
| Japan | EUR/JPY | 170 | 168 | 166 | 164 | 165 | 165 | ||
| UK | EUR/GBP | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.90 | ||
| Canada | USD/CAD | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.33 | ||
| Australia | AUD/USD | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.68 | 0.68 | ||
| New Zealand | NZD/USD | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.62 | ||
| Switzerland | EUR/CHF | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.97 | ||
| Sweden | EUR/SEK | 11.10 | 11.00 | 10.90 | 10.70 | 10.60 | 10.50 | ||
| Norway | EUR/NOK | 11.75 | 11.65 | 11.40 | 11.20 | 11.10 | 11.00 | ||
| Denmark | EUR/DKK | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | ||
| EMEA (eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | |||
| Serbia | EUR/RSD | 117.20 | 117.15 | 117.10 | 117.10 | 117.05 | 117.00 | ||
| Czech Republic | EUR/CZK | 24.59 | 24.53 | 24.47 | 24.40 | 24.34 | 24.27 | ||
| Hungary | EUR/HUF | 405 | 410 | 415 | 420 | 415 | 418 | ||
| Poland | EUR/PLN | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.27 | 4.27 | ||
| Romania | EUR/RON | 5.07 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.12 | 5.15 | ||
| Turkey | USD/TRY | 41.21 | 43.00 | 45.17 | 47.03 | 48.63 | 50.00 | ||
| South Africa | USD/ZAR | 17.75 | 17.50 | 17.50 | 17.25 | 17.25 | 17.00 | ||
| Israel | USD/ILS | 3.35 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 3.15 | 3.10 | ||
| CIS (eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | |||
| Azerbaijan | USD/AZN | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 2.21 | ||
| Kazakhstan | USD/KZT | 530 | 540 | 530 | 545 | 555 | 560 | ||
| Russia | USD/RUB | 87.00 | 95.00 | 105.00 | 100.00 | 110.00 | 115.00 | ||
| EUR/RUB | 100.05 | 112.10 | 123.90 | 118.00 | 130.90 | 138.00 | |||
| Ukraine | USD/UAH | 41.90 | 42.00 | 42.00 | 42.00 | 42.00 | 42.00 | ||
| Latam (eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | |||
| Brazil | USD/BRL | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.80 | 5.80 | 5.80 | 5.80 | ||
| Mexico | USD/MXN | 18.60 | 18.50 | 18.50 | 18.25 | 18.00 | 18.00 | ||
| Chile | USD/CLP | 975 | 950 | 950 | 950 | 950 | 950 | ||
| Asia (eop) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | |||
| China | USD/CNY | 7.17 | 7.13 | 7.10 | 7.10 | 7.05 | 7.05 | ||
| India | USD/INR | 86.00 | 86.50 | 88.00 | 88.00 | 88.00 | 88.00 | ||
| Indonesia | USD/IDR | 16500 | 16600 | 16000 | 15750 | 16000 | 16000 | ||
| Korea | USD/KRW | 1325 | 1325 | 1325 | 1300 | 1275 | 1275 | ||
| Philippines | USD/PHP | 56.50 | 56.50 | 57.00 | 57.00 | 57.25 | 57.50 | ||
| Singapore | USD/SGD | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.32 | ||
| Taiwan | USD/TWD | 29.00 | 28.50 | 28.50 | 28.50 | 28.00 | 28.00 |
Commodities
Last updated: 6th August
| Oil and natural gas forecasts (avg) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2Q26F | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/bbl) | 67 | 62 | 58 | 56 | 58 | 54 | 56 | 68 | 57 | 62 |
| Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) | 37 | 39 | 37 | 30 | 30 | 34 | 30 | 40 | 33 | 26 |
| Metal Forecasts (avg) | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper ($/t) | 9,750 | 9,650 | 9,750 | 9,850 | 9,800 | 9,950 | 9,572 | 9,837 |
| Aluminium ($/t) | 2,600 | 2,550 | 2,600 | 2,650 | 2,600 | 2,650 | 2,560 | 2,625 |
| Nickel ($/t) | 15,000 | 15,250 | 15,500 | 15,500 | 15,000 | 15,500 | 15,349 | 15,375 |
| Zinc ($/t) | 2,780 | 2,800 | 2,800 | 2,850 | 2,700 | 2,750 | 2,779 | 2,775 |
| Lead ($/t) | 2,000 | 2,050 | 2,100 | 2,050 | 2,000 | 2,100 | 2,000 | 2,062 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 3,400 | 3,450 | 3,500 | 3,550 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,250 | 3,512 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 38.00 | 39.00 | 39.50 | 40.00 | 39.50 | 39.50 | 35.75 | 39.50 |
| Iron Ore ($/t) | 100.00 | 105.00 | 100.00 | 95.00 | 90.00 | 95.00 | 100.00 | 95.00 |