Forecasts
Our global economic and financial forecasts
Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.
Growth (GDP)
Last updated: 8th May
| QoQ% Annualised (avg) | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | -0.3 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Japan | -0.4 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Germany | 0.8 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| France | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| UK | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Italy | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Canada | 1.6 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Australia | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Eurozone | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Austria | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 1.2 |
| Spain | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Netherlands | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Belgium | 1.6 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Greece | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Portugal | -2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Switzerland | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Sweden | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| YoY% (avg) | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Croatia | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| Czech Republic | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Hungary | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 4.4 |
| Poland | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Romania | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Turkey | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
| Serbia | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| Azerbaijan | 0.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Kazakhstan | 5.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Russia | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Ukraine | 2.2 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 4.3 |
| China | 5.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| India | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 6.8 |
| Indonesia | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Korea | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Philippines | 5.4 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 6.0 |
| Singapore | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Taiwan | 5.4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
Inflation (CPI)
Last updated: 8th May
| YoY% (avg) | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| Japan | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Germany | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| France | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| UK | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| Italy | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Canada | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Australia | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Eurozone | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Austria | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Spain | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Netherlands | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| Belgium | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Greece | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Portugal | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Switzerland | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Sweden | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Bulgaria | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 |
| Croatia | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Czech Republic | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Hungary | 5.3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| Poland | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| Romania | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Turkey | 38.1 | 36.0 | 30.5 | 29.0 | 24.6 | 20.7 | 19.7 | 18.5 | 34.1 | 21.3 |
| Serbia | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 |
| Azerbaijan | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Kazakhstan | 9.4 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 12.2 |
| Russia | 10.1 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 6.2 |
| Ukraine | 13.6 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 12.0 | 6.6 |
| China | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| India | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
| Indonesia | 0.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Korea | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Philippines | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Singapore | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Taiwan | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
Policy rates
Last updated: 8th May
| G10 (%, eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (upper bound) | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Eurozone (deposit rate) | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Japan (upper bound) | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| UK | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Switzerland | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sweden | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Norway | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Canada | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Australia | 3.85 | 3.60 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.60 |
| EMEA (%, eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| Czech Republic | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Hungary | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.50 |
| Poland | 5.25 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Romania | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Turkey | 43.50 | 38.50 | 33.50 | 29.50 | 26.50 | 23.50 | 21.00 |
| Serbia | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Azerbaijan | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.75 | 8.00 |
| Kazakhstan | 16.50 | 16.50 | 16.50 | 16.50 | 16.50 | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| Russia | 21.00 | 20.00 | 18.00 | 16.00 | 14.50 | 13.50 | 12.50 |
| Ukraine | 16.50 | 15.50 | 14.50 | 13.50 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| Asia (%, eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| China (7 day reverse repo rate) | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| India | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| Indonesia | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Korea | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Philippines | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Taiwan | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
3 month rates
Last updated: 8th May
*3-month Shanghai interbank rate for China; T-bill rate for the Philippines; and 3-month interbank rates for others
| G10 (%, eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 4.40 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Eurozone | 1.90 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| Japan | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| UK | 4.20 | 3.95 | 3.70 | 3.45 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Switzerland | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Canada | 2.60 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 |
| Australia | 3.90 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| EMEA (%, eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| Czech Republic | 3.48 | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.37 |
| Hungary | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.10 | 5.85 | 5.60 | 5.35 |
| Poland | 5.21 | 4.78 | 4.56 | 4.32 | 4.08 | 3.86 | 3.86 |
| Romania | 6.25 | 5.70 | 5.45 | 5.30 | 5.15 | 5.05 | 4.95 |
| Turkey | 44.05 | 38.02 | 33.97 | 29.48 | 26.17 | 23.76 | 21.30 |
| Serbia | 4.65 | 4.45 | 4.40 | 4.15 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| Kazakhstan | 16.30 | 16.30 | 16.30 | 16.30 | 16.30 | 15.80 | 14.80 |
| Russia | 20.50 | 19.50 | 17.50 | 15.50 | 14.25 | 13.40 | 12.50 |
| Asia (%, eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| China* | 1.70 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| India | 6.70 | 6.55 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 |
| Indonesia | 6.30 | 6.10 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Korea | 2.60 | 2.30 | 2.15 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Philippines* | 5.00 | 4.80 | 4.60 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Singapore | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Taiwan* | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
10-year yields
Last updated: 8th May
*Apart from ECB deposit rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields
| G10 (%, eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US: Fed funds | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 3M | 4.40 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| 2Y | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| 5Y | 3.65 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| 10Y | 3.90 | 4.60 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| 30Y | 4.45 | 5.05 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| ECB deposit* | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| 3M | 1.90 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| 2Y | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 2.05 |
| 5Y | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| 10Y | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| 30Y | 2.85 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Japan | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| France | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| Italy | 3.55 | 3.65 | 3.75 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| Spain | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| UK | 4.20 | 4.50 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Netherlands | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Belgium | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Austria | 2.80 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Ireland | 2.75 | 2.85 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| Portugal | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.35 |
| Switzerland | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Sweden | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| Finland | 2.75 | 2.85 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| Canada | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Australia | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| EMEA (%, eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| Bulgaria | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Czech Republic | 4.04 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 3.97 | 3.97 | 4.01 |
| Hungary | 7.00 | 6.85 | 7.00 | 7.20 | 7.10 | 7.05 | 7.00 |
| Poland | 5.31 | 5.42 | 5.39 | 5.34 | 5.24 | 5.05 | 5.05 |
| Romania | 7.50 | 7.40 | 7.30 | 7.30 | 7.00 | 6.85 | 6.75 |
| Russia | 16.00 | 15.00 | 14.00 | 13.00 | 12.50 | 12.50 | 11.50 |
| Turkey | 31.09 | 28.15 | 24.24 | 23.04 | 20.55 | 20.35 | 18.89 |
| Asia (%, eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F |
| China | 1.65 | 1.55 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.85 |
| India | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.35 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 |
| Indonesia | 6.90 | 6.80 | 6.60 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
| Korea | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 |
| Philippines | 5.80 | 5.75 | 5.60 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Singapore | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Taiwan | 1.57 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
FX
Last updated: 8th May
| G10 (eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | EUR/USD | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.15 |
| Japan | USD/JPY | 145 | 142 | 140 | 138 | 138 | 138 | 138 |
| UK | GBP/USD | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.31 |
| Japan | EUR/JPY | 164 | 160 | 158 | 155 | 157 | 157 | 159 |
| UK | EUR/GBP | 0.85 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Canada | USD/CAD | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| Australia | AUD/USD | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| New Zealand | NZD/USD | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Switzerland | EUR/CHF | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| Sweden | EUR/SEK | 11.00 | 11.10 | 10.90 | 10.80 | 10.70 | 10.60 | 10.50 |
| Norway | EUR/NOK | 11.70 | 11.80 | 11.60 | 11.50 | 11.40 | 11.30 | 11.20 |
| Denmark | EUR/DKK | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 |
| EMEA (eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | |
| Serbia | EUR/RSD | 117.20 | 117.20 | 117.15 | 117.10 | 117.10 | 117.05 | 117.00 |
| Czech Republic | EUR/CZK | 24.95 | 24.91 | 24.84 | 24.78 | 24.71 | 24.65 | 24.58 |
| Hungary | EUR/HUF | 408 | 415 | 420 | 424 | 420 | 422 | 424 |
| Poland | EUR/PLN | 4.27 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.28 | 4.29 | 4.29 | 4.29 |
| Romania | EUR/RON | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.08 | 5.09 |
| Turkey | USD/TRY | 39.44 | 41.09 | 43.00 | 45.17 | 47.03 | 48.63 | 50.00 |
| South Africa | USD/ZAR | 20.00 | 19.50 | 19.00 | 19.00 | 19.00 | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| Israel | USD/ILS | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| CIS (eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | |
| Azerbaijan | USD/AZN | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 2.21 |
| Kazakhstan | USD/KZT | 505 | 520 | 530 | 520 | 535 | 555 | 560 |
| Russia | USD/RUB | 85.00 | 90.00 | 100.00 | 105.00 | 100.00 | 110.00 | 115.00 |
| EUR/RUB | 96.05 | 101.70 | 113.00 | 117.60 | 114.00 | 125.40 | 132.25 | |
| Ukraine | USD/UAH | 41.90 | 41.90 | 42.00 | 42.00 | 42.00 | 42.00 | 42.00 |
| Latam (eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | |
| Brazil | USD/BRL | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 |
| Mexico | USD/MXN | 21.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| Chile | USD/CLP | 1000 | 1025 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 | 1050 |
| Asia (eop) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 3Q26F | 4Q26F | |
| China | USD/CNY | 7.25 | 7.20 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.20 | 7.20 | 7.20 |
| India | USD/INR | 85.50 | 86.50 | 86.50 | 88.00 | 88.00 | 88.00 | 88.00 |
| Indonesia | USD/IDR | 16400 | 16500 | 16600 | 16000 | 15750 | 16000 | 16000 |
| Korea | USD/KRW | 1400 | 1425 | 1425 | 1425 | 1425 | 1425 | 1425 |
| Philippines | USD/PHP | 56.00 | 56.50 | 56.00 | 57.00 | 57.00 | 57.25 | 57.50 |
| Singapore | USD/SGD | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.32 |
| Taiwan | USD/TWD | 30.50 | 29.00 | 29.50 | 29.00 | 28.50 | 28.50 | 28.50 |
Commodities
Last updated: 8th May
| Oil and natural gas forecasts (avg) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/bbl) | 64 | 62 | 59 | 58 | 56 | 65 | 57 |
| Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) | 35 | 37 | 39 | 37 | 30 | 39 | 33 |
| Metal Forecasts (avg) | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 1Q26F | 2Q26F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper ($/t) | 9,300 | 9,100 | 9,300 | 9,400 | 9,450 | 9,277 | 9,438 |
| Aluminium ($/t) | 2,550 | 2,500 | 2,550 | 2,600 | 2,650 | 2,555 | 2,625 |
| Nickel ($/t) | 15,000 | 14,500 | 15,000 | 15,500 | 15,500 | 15,000 | 15,375 |
| Zinc ($/t) | 2,650 | 2,600 | 2,650 | 2,700 | 2,650 | 2,695 | 2,650 |
| Lead ($/t) | 1,900 | 1,850 | 1,900 | 1,950 | 1,900 | 1,910 | 1,900 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 3,250 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,128 | 3,175 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 31.00 | 31.50 | 31.00 | 30.50 | 31.00 | 31.00 | 31.00 |
| Iron Ore ($/t) | 95.00 | 95.00 | 90.00 | 95.00 | 90.00 | 95.00 | 90.00 |