Forecasts
Our global economic and financial forecasts
Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.
Latest forecast update: 24 June 2024
Growth (GDP)
| QoQ% Annualised | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Japan | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Germany | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| France | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| UK | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Italy | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Canada | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 8.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Australia | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Austria | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Spain | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Netherlands | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Belgium | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Greece | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Portugal | 3.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Switzerland | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Sweden | -0.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Norway | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| %YoY | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Croatia | 4.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Czech Republic | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Hungary | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 4.4 |
| Poland | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Romania | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Turkey | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Serbia | 4.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Azerbaijan | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Kazakhstan | 4.3 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Russia | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Ukraine | 3.5 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| China | 5.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| India | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 7.7 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| Korea | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Philippines | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Singapore | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Taiwan | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 3.3 |
Inflation (CPI)
| Developed Markets (%YoY) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Japan | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Germany | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| France | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| UK | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Italy | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Canada | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Australia | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Eurozone | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Austria | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Spain | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Netherlands | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Belgium | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Greece | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Portugal | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Switzerland | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Sweden | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Norway | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Bulgaria | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Croatia | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Czech Republic | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Hungary | 4.1 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.9 |
| Poland | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 |
| Romania | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| Turkey | 72.2 | 46.1 | 41.8 | 31.8 | 27.2 | 25.1 | 23.8 | 56.9 | 27.8 | 20.0 |
| Serbia | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| Azerbaijan | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Kazakhstan | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 6.7 |
| Russia | 8.0 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| Ukraine | 5.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 5.0 |
| China | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| India | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Indonesia | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Korea | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Philippines | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Singapore | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Taiwan | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
*Quarterly forecasts are quarterly average; yearly forecasts are average over the year, HICP for European Union economies
Policy rates
| G10 (%) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (upper bound) | 5.50 | 5.25 | 4.75 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Eurozone (deposit rate) | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Japan (upper bound) | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| UK | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Switzerland | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sweden | 3.75 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Norway | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Canada | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Australia | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.10 | 3.85 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| EMEA (%) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F |
| Czech Republic | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Hungary | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 6.75 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.25 | 4.50 |
| Poland | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.75 |
| Romania | 7.00 | 6.80 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 4.75 |
| Turkey | 50.00 | 50.00 | 45.00 | 37.50 | 32.50 | 30.00 | 27.50 | 20.00 |
| Serbia | 6.50 | 6.30 | 6.00 | 5.80 | 5.50 | 5.30 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Azerbaijan | 7.00 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 7.50 |
| Kazakhstan | 14.50 | 14.00 | 13.00 | 12.50 | 12.00 | 11.50 | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| Russia | 16.00 | 16.00 | 15.00 | 13.50 | 12.00 | 11.00 | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| Ukraine | 13.50 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| Asia (%) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F |
| China (1Y LPR) | 3.45 | 3.35 | 3.25 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| India | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Indonesia | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| Korea | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Philippines | 6.50 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| Taiwan | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 |
*China 1 Year Loan Prime Rate
3 month rates
| G10 (%) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 5.40 | 5.20 | 4.70 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Eurozone | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| Japan | 0.35 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| UK | 5.05 | 4.80 | 4.30 | 3.80 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Switzerland | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Canada | 4.90 | 4.60 | 4.10 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Australia | 4.35 | 4.40 | 4.35 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| EMEA (%) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F |
| Czech Republic | 5.10 | 4.85 | 4.60 | 4.35 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| Hungary | 6.95 | 6.95 | 6.95 | 6.65 | 5.95 | 5.75 | 5.25 | 4.50 |
| Poland | 5.85 | 5.85 | 5.90 | 5.87 | 5.70 | 5.37 | 5.20 | 4.95 |
| Romania | 6.05 | 5.80 | 5.60 | 5.30 | 5.20 | 5.10 | 5.00 | 4.25 |
| Turkey | 48.50 | 47.32 | 42.19 | 38.58 | 34.11 | 30.94 | 28.60 | 20.55 |
| Serbia | 5.60 | 5.10 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Kazakhstan | 13.50 | 13.30 | 12.50 | 12.20 | 11.80 | 11.30 | 10.80 | 9.80 |
| Russia | 15.50 | 15.70 | 14.70 | 13.00 | 11.50 | 10.50 | 9.50 | 7.00 |
| Asia (%) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F |
| China* | 2.00 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.75 |
| India | 7.30 | 7.30 | 7.05 | 6.85 | 6.60 | 6.40 | 6.40 | 6.50 |
| Indonesia | 7.11 | 7.03 | 6.78 | 6.65 | 6.68 | 6.47 | 6.28 | 5.90 |
| Korea | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Philippines* | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.60 | 5.40 | 5.25 | 4.83 | 4.60 | 4.42 |
| Singapore | 4.05 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| Taiwan* | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.30 |
*3-month Shanghai interbank rate for China; T-bill rate for the Philippines; and 3-month interbank rates for others
10-year yields
| G10 (%) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US: Fed funds | 5.50 | 5.25 | 4.75 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 3M | 5.40 | 5.20 | 4.70 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2Y | 4.95 | 4.30 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| 5Y | 4.75 | 4.25 | 3.95 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 4.35 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| 10Y | 4.75 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| 30Y | 4.85 | 4.45 | 4.30 | 4.55 | 4.80 | 5.05 | 5.30 | 5.30 |
| ECB deposit* | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| 3M | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| 2Y | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.35 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 2.35 |
| 5Y | 2.60 | 2.45 | 2.35 | 2.40 | 2.45 | 2.55 | 2.65 | 2.75 |
| 10Y | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.90 |
| 30Y | 2.75 | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.95 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| Japan | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| France | 3.15 | 3.05 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| Italy | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 4.15 | 4.25 | 4.35 | 4.45 | 4.25 |
| Spain | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
| UK | 4.40 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Netherlands | 2.95 | 2.85 | 2.75 | 2.85 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.20 |
| Belgium | 3.20 | 3.15 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.50 |
| Austria | 3.15 | 3.05 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| Ireland | 3.05 | 2.95 | 2.85 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Portugal | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| Switzerland | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| Sweden | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 3.10 |
| Norway | 4.00 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Finland | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Canada | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Australia | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| EMEA (%) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F |
| Bulgaria | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.20 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| Czech Republic | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.15 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.15 | 4.20 |
| Hungary | 7.35 | 6.95 | 6.85 | 7.00 | 7.10 | 7.20 | 7.20 | 7.40 |
| Poland | 5.75 | 5.60 | 5.42 | 5.20 | 5.10 | 5.00 | 4.93 | 5.15 |
| Romania | 6.80 | 6.70 | 6.60 | 6.70 | 6.50 | 6.30 | 6.00 | 5.70 |
| Russia | 14.50 | 14.50 | 14.00 | 13.00 | 11.50 | 10.50 | 9.50 | 7.50 |
| Turkey | 27.94 | 25.70 | 22.17 | 20.41 | 19.75 | 18.45 | 17.15 | 16.15 |
| Asia (%) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F |
| China | 2.33 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| India | 7.10 | 7.10 | 6.90 | 6.60 | 6.70 | 6.70 | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| Indonesia | 6.90 | 6.75 | 6.80 | 6.70 | 6.50 | 6.40 | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| Korea | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Philippines | 6.55 | 6.42 | 6.36 | 6.25 | 6.14 | 5.95 | 5.73 | 5.00 |
| Singapore | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.00 |
| Taiwan | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.35 |
*Apart from ECB deposit rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields
FX
| G10 (End period) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | EUR/USD | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Japan | USD/JPY | 150 | 145 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 142 | 145 |
| UK | GBP/USD | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Japan | EUR/JPY | 162.00 | 159.50 | 154.00 | 154.00 | 154.00 | 154.00 | 156.20 | 159.50 |
| UK | EUR/GBP | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Canada | USD/CAD | 1.37 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.27 |
| Australia | AUD/USD | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| New Zealand | NZD/USD | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| Switzerland | EUR/CHF | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sweden | EUR/SEK | 11.70 | 11.40 | 11.40 | 11.20 | 11.20 | 11.00 | 10.90 | 10.70 |
| Norway | EUR/NOK | 11.60 | 11.20 | 11.30 | 11.00 | 11.00 | 10.90 | 10.80 | 10.60 |
| Denmark | EUR/DKK | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 | 7.46 |
| EMEA (End period) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | |
| Serbia | EUR/RSD | 117.20 | 117.10 | 117.00 | 116.90 | 116.85 | 116.85 | 116.80 | 116.50 |
| Czech Republic | EUR/CZK | 24.65 | 24.55 | 24.55 | 24.50 | 24.45 | 24.40 | 24.40 | 24.40 |
| Hungary | EUR/HUF | 395.00 | 388.00 | 385.00 | 395.00 | 405.00 | 400.00 | 405.00 | 414.00 |
| Poland | EUR/PLN | 4.22 | 4.23 | 4.25 | 4.26 | 4.27 | 4.29 | 4.30 | 4.35 |
| Romania | EUR/RON | 4.98 | 4.98 | 5.02 | 5.03 | 5.05 | 5.07 | 5.09 | 5.15 |
| Turkey | USD/TRY | 32.50 | 34.00 | 37.00 | 39.20 | 41.00 | 42.60 | 44.00 | 50.00 |
| South Africa | USD/ZAR | 19.00 | 18.75 | 18.50 | 18.50 | 18.25 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 17.50 |
| Israel | USD/ILS | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.55 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| CIS (End period) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | |
| Azerbaijan | USD/AZN | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Kazakhstan | USD/KZT | 450.00 | 455.00 | 460.00 | 465.00 | 470.00 | 480.00 | 490.00 | 495.00 |
| Russia | USD/RUB | 92.00 | 97.00 | 105.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 105.00 | 110.00 | 120.00 |
| EUR/RUB | 99.36 | 106.70 | 115.50 | 110.00 | 110.00 | 115.50 | 121.00 | 132.00 | |
| Ukraine | USD/UAH | 40.20 | 40.50 | 41.00 | 41.20 | 41.50 | 41.70 | 42.00 | 42.00 |
| Latam (End period) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | |
| Brazil | USD/BRL | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 |
| Mexico | USD/MXN | 16.75 | 16.75 | 16.50 | 16.25 | 16.25 | 16.25 | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| Chile | USD/CLP | 950.00 | 950.00 | 925.00 | 900.00 | 850.00 | 800.00 | 800.00 | 800.00 |
| Asia (End period) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2Q25F | 3Q25F | 4Q25F | 4Q26F | |
| China | USD/CNY | 7.25 | 7.18 | 7.12 | 7.05 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 6.85 |
| India | USD/INR | 83.50 | 83.50 | 82.50 | 83.00 | 83.00 | 83.00 | 83.00 | 84.00 |
| Indonesia | USD/IDR | 16200 | 15950 | 15800 | 15750 | 15600 | 15400 | 15250 | 14780 |
| Korea | USD/KRW | 1340 | 1300 | 1320 | 1300 | 1300 | 1280 | 1280 | 1250 |
| Philippines | USD/PHP | 57.20 | 57.00 | 56.10 | 55.90 | 55.50 | 55.35 | 55.00 | 54.00 |
| Singapore | USD/SGD | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| Taiwan | USD/TWD | 32.35 | 32.15 | 31.80 | 31.30 | 31.20 | 30.90 | 30.70 | 30.50 |
Commodities
| Oil and natural gas forecasts (avg) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent ($/bbl) | 87.0 | 88.0 | 85.0 | 84.0 | 85.0 | 80.0 | 75.0 |
| Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) | 30.0 | 25.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 28.0 |
| Metal Forecasts (avg) | 2Q24F | 3Q24F | 4Q24F | 1Q25F | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper ($/t) | 9,900 | 9,700 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 9,535 | 9,950 | 9,960 |
| Aluminium ($/t) | 2,550 | 2,500 | 2,550 | 2,550 | 2,460 | 2,510 | 2,500 |
| Nickel ($/t) | 19,000 | 18,500 | 18,800 | 19,000 | 18,285 | 19,100 | 18,975 |
| Zinc ($/t) | 2,800 | 2,700 | 2,850 | 2,850 | 2,705 | 2,775 | 2,650 |
| Lead ($/t) | 2,200 | 2,150 | 2,250 | 2,300 | 2,170 | 2,190 | 2,150 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 2,300 | 2,300 | 2,350 | 2,350 | 2,255 | 2,300 | 2,240 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 29.00 | 28.50 | 29.00 | 29.00 | 27.50 | 28.50 | 27.00 |
| Iron Ore ($/t) | 110.00 | 105.00 | 110.00 | 105.00 | 110.00 | 105.00 | 100.00 |