Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

Latest forecast update: 16 November 2022

Growth (GDP)

FX Forecasts updated on 16 November (to match with 2023 FX Outlook). All other figures updated on 7 November

%YoY 3Q22F 4Q22F 1Q23F 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
World (USD) 2.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.9 1.9 3.1 3.4
US 1.8 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.9 -0.7 1.9 -0.4 1.7 2.0
Japan 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.5
Germany 1.2 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.8 -1.9 1.7 -1.5 0.5 1.8
France 1.0 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 2.5 -0.3 1.1 1.4
UK 2.1 0.2 -1.3 -1.8 -1.1 -0.6 4.3 -1.2 1.1 1.5
Italy 2.4 1.1 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 0.7 3.6 0.2 1.6 1.7
Canada 3.6 2.3 1.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 3.3 -0.1 1.7 2.2
Australia 6.6 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.7 4.2 3.0 2.7 3.0
                     
Eurozone 2.1 0.8 -0.5 -1.1 -1.1 0.0 3.1 -0.7 1.3 1.4
Austria 1.8 0.7 -1.4 -2.3 -1.6 1.5 4.7 -0.9 1.9 2.0
Spain 3.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.9 4.3 0.3 1.8 2.1
Netherlands 3.2 2.1 1.8 -0.2 0.6 1.7 4.2 0.9 2.1 1.8
Belgium 1.2 0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 0.2 2.4 -0.4 1.2 1.5
Ireland 6.7 9.1 2.8 1.2 1.0 1.2 9.4 1.5 1.8 2.3
Greece 4.3 2.2 -0.9 -1.6 0.0 1.7 5.5 -0.2 2.0 2.2
Portugal 3.8 1.6 -1.0 -0.8 0.0 1.0 5.9 -0.2 1.7 2.4
Switzerland 0.9 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.1 1.2 1.4
Sweden 3.1 1.3 0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 3.1 -0.3 1.2 1.5
Norway 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.8 1.2 2.7 0.6 1.6 2.0
                     
Bulgaria 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.8 2.6 3.0 1.6 3.3 3.0
Croatia 6.2 4.9 2.3 1.1 1.8 2.6 6.4 1.9 2.9 2.5
Czech Republic 1.6 -0.4 -0.9 0.0 1.9 3.9 2.4 1.2 3.8 2.5
Hungary 3.5 -0.2 -1.5 -2.0 1.5 3.7 4.5 0.4 3.4 3.5
Poland 3.5 0.0 -1.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 4.3 1.5 3.3 3.5
Romania 9.1 6.5 1.5 0.3 2.1 3.0 6.5 1.8 3.7 3.5
Turkey 4.5 1.3 -2.6 3.0 3.9 4.8 5.0 2.5 4.0 4.0
Serbia 1.1 0.2 1.3 1.6 3.9 3.5 2.3 2.9 3.9 3.7
                     
Russia -6.5 -13.0 -15.0 -8.0 -2.0 5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -2.0 0.0
Kazakhstan 2.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.1 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.0
Azerbaijan 3.8 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.8 3.0 2.5 2.5
                     
China 3.9 4.2 4.0 7.0 5.1 5.2 3.3 5.3 5.1 5.5
India 3.5 2.5 6.5 -3.9 3.0 3.2 6.3 6.8 8.0 7.5
Indonesia 5.5 4.9 4.2 4.1 4.6 4.5 5.2 4.4 4.7 4.5
Korea 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.4 2.6 0.6 2.3 2.3
Philippines 5.2 3.2 3.1 4.2 4.8 4.9 5.9 4.4 5.0 5.2
Singapore 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0
Taiwan 4.1 2.1 2.4 2.0 3.8 4.3 3.2 3.1 4.9 4.6
                     

¹ Norway: Forecasts are mainland GDP

*World GDP figure calculated from countries covered in INGF

Inflation (CPI)

FX Forecasts updated on 16 November (to match with 2023 FX Outlook). All other figures updated on 7 November

%YoY 3Q22F 4Q22F 1Q23F 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
World (USD) 8.8 8.5 7.0 4.4 4.8 4.1 6.4 5.3 3.4 3.1
US 8.3 7.6 6.2 4.0 3.2 2.3 8.1 3.9 1.7 2.1
Japan 2.8 3.4 3.2 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.2 1.5
Germany 9.4 12.0 10.7 8.0 7.0 3.6 9.0 7.2 2.2 1.9
France 6.5 6.9 7.0 6.2 5.5 4.4 5.9 5.8 2.9 2.4
UK 10.0 10.2 9.5 6.2 4.7 3.1 8.9 5.9 2.3 1.9
Italy 8.9 12.7 10.7 8.3 5.5 1.6 8.7 6.5 2.2 2.1
Canada 7.2 6.6 5.2 2.6 2.2 2.3 6.7 3.1 1.9 2.2
Australia 7.3 7.2 5.8 4.8 3.6 3.0 2.9 6.4 4.3 2.6
                     
Eurozone 9.3 10.4 9.1 6.4 4.4 2.6 8.4 5.6 2.1 2.1
Austria 9.9 11.0 9.3 6.3 4.1 2.4 8.6 5.5 2.1 2.0
Spain 10.1 7.1 6.2 4.5 3.6 3.1 8.7 4.4 2.2 2.1
Netherlands 14.1 10.2 7.4 6.9 3.5 4.6 10.9 5.5 5.5 0.8
Belgium 10.3 10.6 8.2 6.4 5.7 4.3 9.5 6.2 2.1 2.0
Ireland 9.1 9.5 8.2 6.1 4.1 2.6 8.7 5.3 2.1 2.1
Greece 11.5 11.9 10.2 6.6 4.5 2.6 10.1 5.9 2.0 2.1
Portugal 9.1 8.0 6.0 4.6 2.8 2.3 7.3 3.9 2.7 1.9
Switzerland 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.9 2.4 1.5 1.5
Sweden 8.9 9.5 8.5 6.4 4.6 3.3 8.1 5.4 2.1 1.8
Norway 6.7 6.6 6.4 4.8 3.6 3.2 5.8 4.5 2.5 2.0
                     
Bulgaria 17.8 16.8 14.2 10.0 8.9 8.5 15.2 10.3 4.5 4.5
Croatia 12.5 11.7 9.9 5.8 3.8 3.5 10.5 5.8 3.7 3.5
Czech Republic 17.6 17.8 15.4 12.0 9.8 8.7 15.6 11.5 5.5 3.5
Hungary 20.1 22.2 21.4 17.7 10.5 8.3 14.2 15.7 5.6 3.2
Poland 16.3 18.0 19.3 14.6 12.3 9.2 14.5 14.1 11.6 6.5
Romania 15.4 16.0 14.6 10.7 10.1 8.2 13.7 10.9 5.1 4.0
Turkey 83.5 69.0 49.7 40.7 40.6 40.0 73.1 43.8 28.2 17.3
Serbia 13.3 13.4 12.5 10.1 7.1 5.3 11.5 8.8 4.2 4.5
                     
Russia 13.7 12.4 4.5 4.3 5.6 6.0 13.8 6.1 6.1 5.0
Kazakhstan 17.7 18.6 15.2 11.2 7.5 7.7 14.3 12.0 7.5 6.8
Azerbaijan 15.6 15.4 13.5 11.4 7.8 5.0 13.8 10.6 5.0 4.6
                     
China 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.3 3.0
India 7.0 6.8 6.5 4.6 5.0 4.9 6.9 5.2 4.3 4.5
Indonesia 5.1 6.4 5.5 5.1 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.7 3.5 3.5
Korea 5.9 5.5 4.8 3.4 2.7 2.3 5.2 3.3 1.7 2.2
Philippines 6.6 7.0 6.5 5.6 4.6 3.5 5.6 4.9 3.9 3.5
Singapore 6.8 5.7 4.8 4.5 3.6 3.5 5.8 4.0 3.4 3.0
Taiwan 2.9 3.2 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.5 3.1 1.8 2.2 2.8
                     
Oil Forecasts (avg)                    
$/bbl 3Q22F 4Q22F 1Q23F 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Brent 98.0 97.0 100.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 101.0 104.0 90.0 75.0

*Quarterly forecasts are eop; yearly forecasts are average over the year

Policy rates

FX Forecasts updated on 16 November (to match with 2023 FX Outlook). All other figures updated on 7 November

(%) end period 4Q22F 1Q23F 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
US (upper bound) 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 2.50 3.00
Eurozone (refi rate) 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.25
Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.00
UK 3.50 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.50 3.00 2.25 2.25
Switzerland 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Sweden 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.00 2.00
Norway 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.74 2.50 2.25
Canada 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 3.00
Australia 3.10 3.60 3.60 3.10 2.60 2.35 2.35 2.35
                 
Czech Republic 7.00 7.00 6.25 5.25 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.00
Hungary 13.00 13.00 12.75 12.00 11.25 10.25 5.75 3.50
Poland 7.00 7.00 7.00 6.50 6.50 7.25 7.50 6.50
Romania 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.50 6.00 5.50 4.50
Turkey 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00
Serbia 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.25 4.00 4.00 4.00
                 
Russia 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 6.50
Kazakhstan 16.00 13.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 11.00 9.00 9.00
Azerbaijan 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.50 7.50 6.75 6.75 6.00
                 
China* 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.20 2.60
India 6.15 6.15 5.90 5.40 5.15 4.90 4.90 4.90
Indonesia 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 5.75 5.50 5.00 4.50
Korea 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.50
Philippines 5.50 5.75 5.75 5.50 5.00 5.00 4.50 3.50
Taiwan 1.75 1.88 1.88 1.75 1.63 1.50 1.38 1.50

*PBOC 7-day reverse repo rate

3 month rates

FX Forecasts updated on 16 November (to match with 2023 FX Outlook). All other figures updated on 7 November

(%) end period 4Q22F 1Q23F 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
US SOFR 4.60 4.90 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.25 2.45 2.90
Eurozone 2.20 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.10 2.20 2.10
Japan -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.10
UK 3.65 3.72 3.72 3.71 3.37 2.86 2.21 2.21
Switzerland 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Sweden 2.80 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.65 2.70 2.00 2.00
Norway 3.50 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.30 3.00 2.90 2.50
Canada 4.40 4.70 4.60 4.10 3.60 3.10 2.60 3.20
Australia 3.25 3.75 3.75 3.25 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.50
                 
Czech Republic 7.25 7.25 6.50 5.50 4.25 4.25 4.25 3.25
Hungary 16.25 14.00 12.50 11.75 11.00 9.75 8.25 3.50
Poland 7.15 7.12 7.01 6.67 6.84 7.41 7.67 6.52
Romania 8.25 8.00 7.80 7.60 7.40 7.10 6.80 5.50
Turkey 15.40 15.90 16.20 16.00 15.90 15.80 14.60 12.70
Serbia 3.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.00 3.80 3.80 3.80
                 
Russia 8.00 7.75 7.50 8.00 8.50 8.00 8.00 7.00
Kazakhstan 17.00 14.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 12.00 10.00 10.00
                 
China* 1.85 1.70 1.50 1.50 1.70 2.00 2.55 2.95
India 6.30 6.30 6.15 5.60 5.30 5.10 5.10 5.40
Indonesia 5.60 5.75 5.50 5.55 5.25 5.05 5.04 5.00
Korea 4.00 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.75
Philippines* 6.25 6.10 5.70 5.55 5.30 5.10 5.00 4.00
Singapore 3.90 3.80 3.60 3.50 3.10 3.00 2.50 2.00
Taiwan* 1.18 1.30 1.30 1.18 1.05 0.93 0.80 0.95

*3-month Shanghai interbank rate for China, 3-month CD rate for Korea; 3-month BVAL rate for the Philippines and 3-month Taiwan interbank rate for Taiwan; 3-month bank acceptance futures for Canada; 3-month bank bill for Australia and 3-month interbank rates for others.

10-year yields

FX Forecasts updated on 16 November (to match with 2023 FX Outlook). All other figures updated on 7 November

(%) end period 4Q22F 1Q23F 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
US: Fed funds 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 2.50 3.00
3M 4.60 4.90 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.25 2.45 2.90
2Y 4.60 4.30 3.90 3.40 2.90 2.60 2.65 2.90
5Y 4.35 4.05 3.80 3.30 2.80 2.65 2.85 3.20
10Y 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.25 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.50
30Y 4.45 4.20 4.05 3.65 3.15 3.15 3.40 3.90
                 
EU12: ECB refi* 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.25
3M 2.20 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.10 2.20 2.10
2Y 2.05 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.80
5Y 2.15 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 2.05 2.15
10Y 2.25 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 2.20 2.50
30Y 2.50 2.30 2.25 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.70 3.00
                 
Japan 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.30
France 2.85 2.45 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.70 3.00
Italy 4.75 4.15 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80 4.20 4.50
Spain 3.55 3.10 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 3.20 3.50
UK 3.70 3.40 3.20 3.10 3.10 2.90 2.80 3.00
Netherlands 2.60 2.20 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.45 2.75
Belgium 2.90 2.50 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.75 3.05
Austria 2.95 2.55 2.40 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.75 3.05
Ireland 2.85 2.45 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.70 3.00
Portugal 3.45 3.00 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.70 3.10 3.40
Switzerland 1.50 1.30 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.60 1.60
Sweden 2.25 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 2.40 2.70
Norway 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.05 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.50
Finland 2.95 2.55 2.40 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.75 3.05
Canada 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.50 3.00 3.50
Australia 3.90 3.80 3.50 3.20 2.70 2.70 2.70 3.20
                 
Bulgaria 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.75 5.00 4.80
Czech Republic 5.60 5.00 4.40 4.15 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.50
Hungary 10.00 9.50 9.50 9.00 8.00 8.00 5.50 4.00
Poland 8.09 7.64 7.39 7.29 7.47 7.56 7.09 6.38
Romania 9.15 8.75 8.60 8.45 8.30 8.00 7.90 7.00
Russia 9.50 9.00 8.50 9.00 9.00 8.50 8.50 7.50
Turkey 13.00 14.00 15.20 15.90 15.90 15.70 15.30 14.80
                 
China 2.60 2.60 2.70 2.70 2.80 2.80 3.10 3.50
India 7.50 7.30 7.10 6.80 6.50 6.30 6.30 6.60
Indonesia 7.30 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 7.00 6.75 6.50
Korea 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.25 3.50
Philippines 7.10 6.90 6.75 6.40 6.25 6.20 6.00 5.50
Singapore 3.40 3.25 3.00 2.80 2.70 2.55 2.50 2.00
Taiwan 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.68 1.55 1.43 1.56 1.68

*Apart from ECB refi rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields

FX

FX Forecasts updated on 16 November (to match with 2023 FX Outlook). All other figures updated on 7 November

end period   4Q22F 1Q23F 2Q23F 3Q23F 4Q23F 1Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
Euro EUR/USD 0.98 0.95 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.10 1.10
Japan USD/JPY 145.0 145.0 140.0 135.0 130.0 138.0 130.0 130.0
UK GBP/USD 1.10 1.07 1.11 1.14 1.14 1.16 1.25 1.25
Japan EUR/JPY 142.00 138.00 137.00 135.00 130.00 140.76 143.00 143.00
UK EUR/GBP 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88
Canada USD/CAD 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.26 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.30
Australia AUD/USD 0.66 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.68
New Zealand NZD/USD 0.60 0.60 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.62
                   
Switzerland EUR/CHF 0.95 0.93 0.90 0.90 0.92 0.93 1.00 1.00
Sweden EUR/SEK 10.85 10.70 10.60 10.40 10.50 10.50 10.00 10.50
Norway EUR/NOK 10.30 10.15 9.95 9.70 9.60 9.50 9.50 10.00
Denmark EUR/DKK 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.45 7.45 7.46 7.46
                   
Serbia EUR/RSD 117.30 117.30 117.35 117.40 117.40 117.35 117.30 117.10
Czech Republic EUR/CZK 24.50 24.50 25.00 25.00 24.50 24.50 23.70 23.20
Hungary EUR/HUF 400 390 380 385 390 380 370 375
Poland EUR/PLN 4.90 4.85 4.74 4.66 4.70 4.66 4.53 4.60
Romania EUR/RON 4.94 4.95 5.10 5.10 5.10 5.20 5.20 5.30
Turkey USD/TRY 19.50 21.20 22.40 23.30 24.00 25.00 27.50 30.00
South Africa USD/ZAR 18.00 17.50 17.25 17.00 16.50 17.00 17.00 17.00
Israel USD/ILS 3.50 3.40 3.25 3.10 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.50
                   
Russia USD/RUB 65.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 95.00 95.00 90.00
  EUR/RUB 59.80 64.40 71.25 78.40 85.00 104.50 104.50 103.50
Kazakhstan USD/KZT 480.00 480.00 470.00 470.00 470.00 510.00 510.00 530.00
Ukraine USD/UAH 40.00 40.00 38.50 37.70 37.00 36.40 36.00 32.00
Azerbaijan USD/AZN 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
                   
Brazil USD/BRL 5.50 5.75 5.80 5.90 6.00 6.00 5.90 5.80
Mexico USD/MXN 20.00 20.00 19.50 19.25 19.00 19.25 19.00 19.00
Chile USD/CLP 950.0 1000.0 950.0 925.0 900.0 900.0 900.0 900.0
                   
China USD/CNY 7.22 7.35 7.25 7.18 7.13 6.80 7.05 7.12
India USD/INR 83.00 84.00 83.00 82.00 82.00 80.00 82.00 83.00
Indonesia USD/IDR 15850 15950 15800 15700 15600 15300 14900 14800
Korea USD/KRW 1350 1400 1350 1300 1250 1250 1200 1200
Philippines USD/PHP 58.75 59.00 58.50 58.00 57.50 57.20 56.50 56.00
Singapore USD/SGD 1.39 1.40 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.32 1.31
Taiwan USD/TWD 32.40 33.00 32.00 31.70 31.40 28.70 28.50 29.00