Previsioni

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

Growth (GDP)

Last updated: 16 April

QoQ% Annualised (avg) 1Q26F 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F
US 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0
Japan 1.2 0.4 1.2 1.6 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0
Germany -0.8 0.6 1.8 2.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.7 1.9
France 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.8
UK 2.4 1.1 -0.8 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.9
Italy 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.7
Canada 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.9
Australia 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.8 2.5
                     
Eurozone 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.7 1.3
Austria 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.6 1.3
Spain 2.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.7
Netherlands 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5
Belgium 0.8 0.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.7 1.2
Greece 1.6 0.8 1.4 1.2 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8
Portugal 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8
Switzerland 1.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.5 1.2
                     
YoY% (avg) 1Q26F 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F
                     
Bulgaria 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.5
Croatia 3.5 3.1 3.0 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.7 1.7
Czech Republic 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.3
Hungary 1.6 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.4 2.7 2.7 3.2 1.6 2.5
Poland 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.9 3.4 3.2
Turkey 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.9 3.9 4.1 5.0 3.0 4.0
Serbia 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.0 3.2
                     
Azerbaijan -0.3 2.5 5.0 2.7 3.0 3.5 2.0 3.5 2.5 3.0
Kazakhstan 4.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 4.8 4.0 4.0 5.0 4.5
Russia -1.5 0.0 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.8
Uzbekistan 6.5 6.3 6.0 7.0 6.5 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.0
Ukraine 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 2.5 3.4
                     
China 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.0 4.8 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.4
India 7.0 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Indonesia 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 5.0
Korea 2.9 2.3 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.8
Philippines 4.3 4.3 4.0 5.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.5 6.0
Singapore 4.6 4.0 2.8 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.3 2.5
Taiwan 11.5 8.6 8.5 4.8 4.5 5.1 5.0 5.1 8.2 4.9

Inflation (CPI)

Last updated: 16 April

YoY% (avg) 1Q26F 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F
US 2.7 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 3.5 2.0
Japan 1.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.0
Germany 2.2 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.7 2.3 1.7 1.6 3.5 2.3
France 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.8 1.4 2.1 1.3
UK 3.1 2.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 2.6 1.8 2.0 3.4 2.5
Italy 1.3 2.4 3.0 3.1 2.8 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.5 2.0
Canada 2.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.3 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.6 1.9
Australia 4.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.7 3.0
                     
Eurozone 2.0 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 2.1 1.9 1.9 3.4 2.4
Austria 2.5 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 3.4 2.4
Spain 2.7 3.3 3.1 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.2 3.1 2.5
Netherlands 2.3 3.2 4.0 4.1 3.7 2.7 1.6 1.5 3.4 2.4
Belgium 1.8 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.4 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.6 2.3
Greece 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.4 2.3
Portugal 2.2 2.9 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.2
Switzerland 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7
                     
Bulgaria 3.3 3.8 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.5
Croatia 3.8 4.3 3.4 3.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.7 2.7
Czech Republic 1.6 2.5 2.3 2.8 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.7
Hungary 1.8 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.7
Poland 2.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.4 3.5 2.9
Turkey 30.9 30.8 28.2 27.5 23.9 21.2 19.6 18.9 29.6 21.2
Serbia 2.6 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.0 3.8
                     
Azerbaijan 5.7 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.1
Kazakhstan 11.6 10.6 9.9 10.3 10.4 10.3 9.9 9.3 10.6 10.0
Russia 5.9 5.9 5.7 6.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.7 5.9 4.9
Uzbekistan 7.2 6.9 7.0 8.1 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.3 8.1
Ukraine 9.2 8.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.7 8.1 6.2
                     
China 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3
India 3.1 4.0 4.8 5.5 4.5 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.4 5.0
Indonesia 3.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5
Korea 2.1 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.0
Philippines 2.8 5.5 5.5 4.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.7 3.0
Singapore 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0
Taiwan 1.2 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.1 1.5 2.2 1.6

Policy rates

Last updated: 16 April

G10 (%, eop) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F
US (upper bound) 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Eurozone (deposit rate) 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
Japan (upper bound) 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50
UK 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.25 3.25
Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sweden 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Norway 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.75
Canada 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Australia 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.10 4.10 3.85 3.85
EMEA (%, eop)              
Czech Republic 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Hungary 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.00
Poland 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Turkey 37.00 35.00 33.00 30.00 27.00 25.00 23.00
Serbia 5.75 5.50 5.50 5.25 5.00 5.00 5.00
               
Azerbaijan 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25
Kazakhstan 18.00 17.50 16.50 16.00 15.50 15.00 14.50
Russia 14.50 14.00 13.50 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00
Uzbekistan 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 13.00
Ukraine 14.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.50 12.00 11.50
Asia (%, eop)              
China (7 day reverse repo rate) 1.40 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.20 1.20 1.20
India 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25
Indonesia 4.75 4.75 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50
Korea 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Philippines 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.25 4.25 4.25
Taiwan 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

3 month rates

Last updated: 16 April

G10 (%, eop) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F
US 3.70 3.50 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30
Eurozone 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40
Japan 1.30 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75
UK 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20
Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Canada 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.40 2.60 2.90 3.10
Australia 4.38 4.40 4.40 4.20 4.20 4.00 4.00
EMEA (%, eop) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F
Czech Republic 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58
Hungary 6.30 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.00 5.60 4.85
Poland 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83
Turkey 39.60 35.60 32.70 29.80 26.40 24.20 22.40
Serbia 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.50 4.20 4.00 3.90
               
Kazakhstan 16.00 16.00 15.50 15.80 15.30 14.80 14.30
Russia 12.50 12.50 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.50 10.00
Asia (%, eop) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F
China* 1.48 1.45 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.35 1.35
India 6.30 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.30 6.50
Indonesia 5.50 5.40 5.30 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
Korea 2.90 3.10 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.20 3.20
Philippines* 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.75 4.75
Singapore 1.15 1.20 1.40 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Taiwan* 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65

10-year yields

Last updated: 16 April

G10 (%, eop) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F
US: Fed funds 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
3M 3.70 3.50 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30
2Y 3.75 3.50 3.40 3.35 3.40 3.40 3.40
5Y 4.00 3.80 3.75 3.75 3.80 3.80 3.85
10Y 4.50 4.30 4.25 4.15 4.25 4.25 4.30
30Y 5.00 4.90 4.85 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75
               
ECB deposit* 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
3M 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40
2Y 2.60 2.55 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.40 2.40
5Y 2.80 2.75 2.75 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.75
10Y 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.10
30Y 3.65 3.60 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.60 3.70
               
Japan 2.60 2.70 2.75 2.75 2.85 3.00 3.00
France 3.75 3.65 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.65 3.75
Italy 3.85 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.65 3.75
Spain 3.55 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.55
UK 4.65 4.50 4.30 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.50
Netherlands 3.20 3.10 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.15
Belgium 3.65 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.65
Austria 3.40 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.40
Ireland 3.30 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.30
Portugal 3.50 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.35 3.45
Switzerland 0.50 0.40 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60
Finland 3.40 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.45
Canada 3.60 3.60 3.50 3.75 3.75 4.00 4.00
Australia 4.80 4.80 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70
EMEA (%, eop)              
Bulgaria 3.65 3.60 3.50 3.30 3.15 3.15 3.20
Czech Republic 4.36 4.23 4.17 4.17 4.17 4.17 4.17
Hungary 6.05 6.35 6.25 6.10 5.90 5.50 5.00
Poland 5.20 5.00 4.90 4.95 4.95 5.00 5.00
Russia 13.50 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50
Turkey 27.20 26.30 26.10 24.90 22.40 21.60 20.50
Asia (%, eop)              
China 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15
India 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40
Indonesia 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.60 6.60 6.60 6.60
Korea 3.75 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Philippines 5.60 5.60 5.50 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.00
Singapore 2.10 2.10 2.05 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20
Taiwan 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.60 1.60

FX

Last updated: 17 April

G10 (eop)   2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2027F
Euro EUR/USD 1.17 1.18 1.20 1.22
Japan USD/JPY 158 155 153 145
UK GBP/USD 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.36
Japan EUR/JPY 185 183 184 177
UK EUR/GBP 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.90
Canada USD/CAD 1.37 1.35 1.34 1.32
Australia AUD/USD 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.73
New Zealand NZD/USD 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.61
           
Switzerland EUR/CHF 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.95
Sweden EUR/SEK 10.75 10.70 10.60 10.50
Norway EUR/NOK 10.85 10.75 10.70 10.50
Denmark EUR/DKK 7.47 7.46 7.46 7.46
EMEA (eop)   2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2027F
Serbia EUR/RSD 117.35 117.30 117.30 117.20
Czech Republic EUR/CZK 24.29 24.23 24.18 24.01
Hungary EUR/HUF 350 365 350 340
Poland EUR/PLN 4.23 4.24 4.22 4.25
Turkey USD/TRY 46.60 49.10 52.00 60.00
South Africa USD/ZAR 16.25 16.00 16.00 15.50
Israel USD/ILS 3.10 3.10 3.05 3.05
CIS (eop)   2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2027F
Azerbaijan USD/AZN 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
Kazakhstan USD/KZT 485 500 520 550
Russia USD/RUB 80.00 82.00 87.00 95.00
  EUR/RUB 92.80 96.80 104.40 114.00
Uzbekistan USD/UZS 12000 12100 12130 12736
Ukraine USD/UAH 42.80 42.80 42.80 43.50
Latam (eop)   2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2027F
Brazil USD/BRL 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.75
Mexico USD/MXN 17.50 17.50 17.25 17.25
Chile USD/CLP 875 900 950 950
Asia (eop)   2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2027F
China USD/CNY 6.80 6.77 6.75 6.60
India USD/INR 93.50 93.50 93.00 92.00
Indonesia USD/IDR 17200 17000 16800 17000
Korea USD/KRW 1450 1425 1425 1400
Philippines USD/PHP 60.00 59.50 59.50 59.00
Singapore USD/SGD 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.29
Taiwan USD/TWD 31.50 31.30 31.10 30.20

Commodities

Last updated 16th April 

Oil and natural gas forecasts (avg) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F
Brent ($/bbl) 96 93 88 82 79 75 72 89 77
Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) 55 45 45 40 33 31 32 46 34
Metal Forecasts (avg) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2026F
Copper ($/t) 13,500 12,500 11,500 12,500
Aluminium ($/t) 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,425
Nickel ($/t) 17,000 16,500 17,000 17,000
Zinc ($/t) 3,200 3,150 3,150 3,200
Lead ($/t) 2,050 2,000 2,100 2,062
Gold ($/oz) 5,100 5,300 5,450 5,190
Silver ($/oz) 85.00 81.00 78.00 83.00
Iron Ore ($/t) 95.00 90.00 95.00 95.00