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Growth (GDP)

Last updated: 24 June

YoY% (avg) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F 2028F
US 3.0 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1
Japan 1.2 0.4 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9
Germany 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 0.6 1.4 1.8
France -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.8 1.2
UK 0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.5
Italy 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7
Canada 2.3 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 0.7 1.9 1.9
Australia 2.0 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0
                     
Eurozone 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.2 1.2
Austria 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.8 1.3 1.2
Spain 1.0 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.7 -
Netherlands 1.1 0.3 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.5
Belgium 0.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.7 1.2 1.2
Greece 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.3 2.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
Portugal 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 -
Switzerland 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.5
                     
YoY% (avg) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F 2028F
                     
Bulgaria 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.5 -
Croatia 3.1 3.0 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.7 1.7 -
Czech Republic 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.4 2.5
Hungary 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.8 2.9 3.5 1.5 2.6 2.9
Poland 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.2 3.0
Turkey 2.7 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.3 3.0 4.0 4.0
Serbia 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.0 3.2 -
                     
Azerbaijan 2.0 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.5 2.0 3.5 2.0 3.0 2.3
Kazakhstan 5.0 5.5 6.5 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 5.0 4.8 4.5
Russia 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.3
Uzbekistan 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.5 7.5 6.5 6.0
Ukraine 1.6 1.5 1.8 4.2 2.4 2.5 2.8 1.0 3.1 3.4
                     
China 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.0 4.8 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.4 4.2
India 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.8
Indonesia 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0
Korea 4.2 3.6 4.4 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0 4.0 2.4 2.0
Philippines 3.5 5.5 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.5 5.5 6.0
Singapore 4.0 2.8 1.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.7 2.7 2.5
Taiwan 12.1 10.6 5.6 4.7 5.2 6.4 7.6 10.5 6.0 5.2

Inflation (CPI)

Last updated: 24 June

YoY% (avg) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F 2028F
US 4.0 4.4 4.3 3.7 2.3 1.7 1.8 3.9 2.3 1.9
Japan 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.7 2.3 2.1
Germany 2.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.1 1.9 1.7 3.1 2.6 1.7
France 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.5 1.7 1.4
UK 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.5 3.5 3.3 1.9
Italy 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 3.0 2.2 1.9
Canada 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 2.2
Australia 5.0 4.6 4.6 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 4.6 3.4 3.0
                     
Eurozone 3.2 4.0 3.9 3.6 2.1 1.9 1.9 3.3 2.4 2.1
Austria 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 2.2 1.9 1.9 3.4 2.4 2.1
Spain 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 3.5 2.6 -
Netherlands 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.9 2.5 2.2
Belgium 4.2 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.1 2.4 2.1 3.6 2.9 2.1
Greece 4.7 4.8 4.4 3.8 2.4 2.3 2.2 4.2 2.7 2.3
Portugal 2.9 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.2 -
Switzerland 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8
                     
Bulgaria 3.8 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.5 -
Croatia 4.3 3.4 3.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.7 2.7 -
Czech Republic 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.2
Hungary 1.9 2.3 3.3 3.9 4.2 3.9 3.3 2.3 3.8 3.1
Poland 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.7
Turkey 32.2 29.4 28.5 25.4 22.3 21.2 21.0 30.6 22.6 20.0
Serbia 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.0 3.8 -
                     
Azerbaijan 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.3
Kazakhstan 10.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.3 9.9 9.3 10.4 9.9 8.4
Russia 5.5 5.3 5.7 4.6 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.6 4.9 4.3
Uzbekistan 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.5 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.5
Ukraine 7.5 8.5 9.0 8.0 7.3 6.1 6.1 8.2 6.9 4.9
                     
China 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5
India 4.0 4.8 5.5 4.5 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.4 5.0 4.5
Indonesia 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5
Korea 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.0 1.7 3.0 2.3 1.8
Philippines 7.4 7.2 6.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 6.0 3.5 3.0
Singapore 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0
Taiwan 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.6 1.8

Policy rates

Last updated: 24 June

G10 (%, eop) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F 2028F
US (upper bound) 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.25 3.75 3.25 3.25
Eurozone (deposit rate) 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.25 2.25
Japan (upper bound) 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.25 1.75 1.75
UK 3.75 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 4.00 3.25 3.25
Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sweden 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 1.75 2.25 2.25
Norway 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.25 4.00 4.50 4.00 4.00
Canada 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.25 2.75 3.00
Australia 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 3.85 3.85 4.35 3.85 3.60
EMEA (%, eop)                    
Czech Republic 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.50 3.75 3.75
Hungary 6.00 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.00 5.25 5.00 4.00
Poland 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Turkey 37.00 37.00 35.00 32.00 29.00 27.00 25.00 35.00 25.00 24.00
Serbia 5.75 5.50 5.50 5.25 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.50 5.00 -
                     
Azerbaijan 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.00
Kazakhstan 17.00 16.50 16.00 15.50 15.00 14.50 14.00 16.00 14.00 12.00
Russia 14.25 14.00 14.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 14.00 11.00 8.50
Uzbekistan 14.00 13.50 13.50 13.50 12.50 12.00 12.00 13.50 12.00 11.00
Ukraine 15.00 15.00 15.00 14.50 14.00 13.50 13.00 15.00 13.00 11.00
Asia (%, eop)                    
China (7 day reverse repo rate) 1.40 1.40 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.20 1.20 1.30 1.20 1.20
India 5.25 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.25
Indonesia 5.50 5.75 5.75 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.75 5.25 5.00
Korea 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.50 3.50
Philippines 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50 5.25 4.50 4.50
Taiwan 2.00 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13

3 month rates

Last updated: 24 June

G10 (%, eop) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F 2028F
US 3.65 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.40 3.15 3.15 3.60 3.15 3.30
Eurozone 2.40 2.60 2.60 2.50 2.20 2.25 2.25 2.60 2.25 2.30
Japan 1.40 1.50 1.65 1.85 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.65 2.00 2.00
UK 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.95 3.70 3.45 3.25 4.00 3.25 3.25
Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Canada 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.40 2.60 2.60 2.90 2.30 2.90 3.10
Australia 4.38 4.40 4.40 4.30 4.30 4.00 4.00 4.40 4.00 3.85
EMEA (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Czech Republic 3.59 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62
Hungary 5.80 5.10 5.10 5.10 5.10 5.10 4.85 5.10 4.85 4.00
Poland 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83
Turkey 43.80 39.15 34.50 31.60 28.90 26.80 24.50 34.50 24.50 23.40
Serbia 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.50 4.20 4.00 3.90 4.70 3.90 -
Kazakhstan 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.30 14.80 14.30 13.80 15.00 13.80 11.80
Russia 13.25 13.00 13.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 13.00 10.00 8.50
Asia (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
China* 1.42 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.30 1.30 1.35 1.30 1.30
India 6.30 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.25
Indonesia 5.50 5.50 5.40 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.40 5.50 5.25
Korea 2.90 3.10 3.30 3.50 3.75 3.70 3.70 3.30 3.70 3.65
Philippines* 3.50 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.75 3.50 3.50
Singapore 1.15 1.20 1.40 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.40 1.50 1.30
Taiwan* 1.68 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.80

Bonds & Swaps

Last updated: 24 June

  2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F 2028F
US Treasury yields (%, eop)                    
UST 2Y 4.05 4.05 4.00 3.70 3.50 3.40 3.40 4.00 3.40 3.40
UST 5Y 4.20 4.20 4.15 3.85 3.80 3.80 3.85 4.15 3.85 3.90
UST 10Y 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.25 4.25 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.40 4.50
UST 30Y 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.90 5.00 5.05 5.15 5.00 5.15 5.15
US swap rates (SOFR, %, eop)                    
SOFR 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.40 3.15 3.15 3.65 3.15 3.15
US 2Y swap 3.90 3.90 3.85 3.55 3.35 3.25 3.25 3.85 3.25 3.25
US 5Y swap 3.90 3.90 3.85 3.55 3.50 3.50 3.55 3.85 3.55 3.60
US 10Y swap 4.00 4.00 3.95 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.95 3.95 3.95 4.00
US 30Y swap 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.15 4.25 4.25 4.35 4.25 4.35 4.30
German Bund yields (%, eop)                    
Bund 2Y 2.60 2.60 2.55 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.55 2.40 2.50
Bund 5Y 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.75 2.70 2.75 2.85
Bund 10Y 2.95 2.95 2.95 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.10 2.95 3.10 3.20
Bund 30Y 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.60 3.65 3.65 3.70 3.50 3.70 3.80
EUR swap rates (EURIBOR 6m, %, eop)                    
EURIBOR 6M 2.85 2.85 2.80 2.65 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.80 2.45 2.45
EUR 2Y swap 2.80 2.80 2.70 2.65 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.70 2.55 2.65
EUR 5Y swap 2.85 2.85 2.80 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.90
EUR 10Y swap 3.00 3.00 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 3.05 2.95 3.05 3.15
EUR 30Y swap 3.15 3.15 3.20 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.40 3.20 3.40 3.50
Other G10 bond yields (10Y, %, eop)                    
Japan 2.65 2.80 2.90 3.10 3.10 3.00 3.00 2.90 3.00 3.00
France 3.70 3.70 3.75 3.80 3.75 3.65 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.85
Italy 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.75 3.75 3.70 3.80 3.70 3.80 3.90
Spain 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.55 3.40 3.55 3.60
UK 5.00 5.00 4.90 4.65 4.55 4.45 4.50 4.30 4.40 4.50
Netherlands 3.05 3.05 3.00 3.05 3.05 3.05 3.15 3.00 3.15 3.20
Belgium 3.50 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.55 3.55 3.65 3.55 3.65 3.75
Austria 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.35 3.20 3.35 3.45
Ireland 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.30 3.15 3.30 3.40
Portugal 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.45 3.30 3.45 3.55
Switzerland 0.45 0.50 0.50 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.55 0.50 0.55 0.70
Finland 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.35 3.30 3.30 3.40 3.30 3.40 3.50
Australia 4.95 4.90 4.80 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.80 4.70 4.50
EMEA (%, eop)                    
Bulgaria 3.65 3.60 3.50 3.30 3.15 3.15 3.20 3.50 3.20 -
Czech Republic 4.88 4.74 4.52 4.24 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.52 4.20 4.20
Hungary 5.25 5.25 5.60 6.05 5.50 5.25 5.00 5.60 5.00 4.75
Poland 5.50 5.20 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.05 5.05 5.00 5.05 5.10
Russia 14.25 14.00 14.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 14.00 10.50 10.00
Turkey 33.50 29.00 28.70 27.70 24.40 24.10 23.05 28.70 23.05 20.50
Asia (%, eop)                    
China 1.75 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 1.95 2.00 1.85 2.00 2.15
India 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.90 6.40 6.50
Indonesia 6.70 6.60 6.50 6.60 6.60 6.60 6.60 6.50 6.60 6.50
Korea 4.20 4.30 4.50 4.25 4.25 4.20 4.15 4.50 4.15 4.00
Philippines 6.30 6.50 6.50 6.40 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.50 6.25 6.00
Singapore 2.10 2.10 2.05 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.05 2.20 2.00
Taiwan 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.65 1.65 1.70 1.70 1.60 1.70 1.80

FX

Last updated: 24 June

G10 (eop)   2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2027F
Euro EUR/USD 1.15 1.17 1.18 1.22
Japan USD/JPY 160 160 158 152
UK GBP/USD 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.36
Japan EUR/JPY 184 187 186 185
UK EUR/GBP 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.90
Canada USD/CAD 1.42 1.39 1.37 1.34
Australia AUD/USD 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.73
New Zealand NZD/USD 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60
           
Switzerland EUR/CHF 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.95
Sweden EUR/SEK 11.00 10.90 10.70 10.50
Norway EUR/NOK 11.10 10.85 10.65 10.50
Denmark EUR/DKK 7.47 7.46 7.46 7.46
EMEA (eop)   2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2027F
Serbia EUR/RSD 117.35 117.30 117.30 117.20
Czech Republic EUR/CZK 24.21 24.13 24.07 23.90
Hungary EUR/HUF 350 360 350 350
Poland EUR/PLN 4.23 4.24 4.22 4.25
Turkey USD/TRY 46.65 49.55 53.00 62.00
South Africa USD/ZAR 16.50 16.50 16.25 16.00
Israel USD/ILS 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.05
CIS (eop)   2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2027F
Azerbaijan USD/AZN 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
Kazakhstan USD/KZT 475 480 490 540
Russia USD/RUB 75.00 80.00 85.00 93.00
  EUR/RUB 86.25 93.60 100.30 113.46
Uzbekistan USD/UZS 11970 12085 12130 12615
Ukraine USD/UAH 44.00 44.20 44.40 44.50
Latam (eop)   2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2027F
Brazil USD/BRL 5.15 5.15 5.00 4.75
Mexico USD/MXN 17.50 17.50 17.25 17.25
Chile USD/CLP 925 925 925 900
Asia (eop)   2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2027F
China USD/CNY 6.77 6.73 6.70 6.55
India USD/INR 95.50 94.50 94.00 93.00
Indonesia USD/IDR 18100 18000 17900 17300
Korea USD/KRW 1515 1500 1475 1425
Philippines USD/PHP 61.50 61.50 61.00 59.50
Singapore USD/SGD 1.29 1.27 1.26 1.26
Taiwan USD/TWD 31.60 31.30 31.10 30.40

Commodities

Last updated: 24 June

Oil and natural gas forecasts (avg) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Brent ($/bbl) 97 87 85 82 79 75 72 87 77 72
Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) 47 45 48 40 32 31 32 45 34 27
Metal Forecasts (avg) 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2026F
Copper ($/t) 13,500 12,500 13,000 12,968
Aluminium ($/t) 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,425
Nickel ($/t) 18,000 17,500 17,000 17,505
Zinc ($/t) 3,350 3,300 3,250 3,290
Lead ($/t) 2,000 1,950 2,050 1,995
Gold ($/oz) 4,700 4,300 4,600 4,580
Silver ($/oz) 75.00 68.00 74.00 75.00
Iron Ore ($/t) 105.00 95.00 100.00 100.50