What’s happening in Australia and around the world?

President Trump and the Fed - we've changed our view

President Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on the Fed to support his efforts on extracting concessions from China on trade. Policymakers appear…

FX: The delay in some US tariffs on China and the implications for FX

The announced delay on some of the US tariffs on China is positive news for USD vs low yielding FX such as JPY, EUR and CHF. On the flip side, the dollar…

Revising yuan forecast

We are revising our USD/CNY forecast following the Chinese government's decision to allow the yuan to cross the 7 handle

Asia week ahead: Is this what calm after the storm looks like?

After the escalation of the trade and currency war unleashing a whole load of central bank policy easing in Asia this week, markets may get some room to…

German recession fears, should we blame the Chinese car market?

The current slowdown of the German economy is closely linked to problems in the automotive sector. What role does China play in all of this?

Three political scenarios for Italy with FX and rates implications

The collapse of Italy's ruling coalition opens the way for three possible scenarios: new elections, an extension of the current coalition or a new…

US FX intervention: What are the chances?

A further tirade from President Trump over the strong dollar begs the question whether he’s prepared to weaken it through FX intervention? We would…

Bank of Thailand catches markets off-guard

Our high-conviction, low-probability call of a rate cut has paid off. While rate cuts will take some of the appreciation pressure off the Thai baht, we…

India’s RBI cuts more than consensus by 35bp

The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to cut rates by another 35 basis points today will undoubtedly worsen the Indian rupee’s plight during…

Crude oil: Further OPEC+ cuts needed?

There is a clear battle going on in the oil market- uncertainty over demand growth versus a constructive supply picture in the near term. But which will…

Why (some) of your colleagues and boss are paid more than you

You are probably paid less than your boss, but it may not be because of the work he is doing or to keep him motivated. Instead, it is meant to motivate…