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US: A milestone, a short squeeze and a Q1 conundrum

  • 25 April 2018

The 10-year Treasury yield has finally hit 3% after four years, the dollar rally is showing all the hallmarks of a short squeeze, European companies might be scaling back some of their more aggressive dollar hedges and we still expect the Fed to hike three times this year with a further two, possibly three in 2019

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Why the US 10-year should settle in the 3% to 3.5% range
Rates United States
23 April 2018

Why the US 10-year should settle in the 3% to 3.5% range

Has the US 10-year Treasury yield peaked? We’re not convinced and think it's likely to breach 3%, possibly within the next few weeks

USD: Return of the king or just a breather from a crowded short trade
FX
24 April 2018

USD: Return of the king or just a breather from a crowded short trade

The sharp 2% bounceback in the broad US dollar index has raised some eyebrows and led to questions whether this is a new trend. But FX positioning data…

US GDP: The Q1 conundrum
24 April 2018

US GDP: The Q1 conundrum

US GDP readings for the first quarter are by far the weakest in any given year. Given our 2.4% forecast for 1Q18, this trend suggests 2018 will be fantastic

FX: Are corporates reconsidering US dollar hedges?
FX United States
24 April 2018

FX: Are corporates reconsidering US dollar hedges?

With US dollar hedging costs high, EUR/USD closer to fair value and the ECB story on hold, European corporates may be reconsidering their high hedge…

US: Are we heading to recession?
United States
19 April 2018

US: Are we heading to recession?

The US yield curve keeps getting flatter with growing concern it could turn negative. Such a development preceeded all nine recessions since 1955. How…

US Recession Rates QE Inflation GDP FX Federal Reserve Dollar

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This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
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