September Economic Update: V for virus, vaccine, and a V-shaped recovery?

Three new scenarios for the global economy as the recovery heads for a turbulent winter

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Report

September Economic Update: V for virus, vaccine, and a V-shaped recovery?

Three new scenarios for the global economy as the recovery heads for a turbulent winter

, and 6 others

United States

Three new scenarios for the global recovery’s next phase

With the economic rebound from Covid-19 now in full swing, we look at what could be a turbulent path to a full recovery. Our new-look scenarios map out…

and

United States

US: The surge subsides

High-frequency data suggests that the post-reopening surge in activity began to moderate in July and this process continued throughout August. With the…

United States

US election: Biden’s to lose?

Opinion polls suggest Joe Biden has a commanding lead over President Donald Trump, but with two months to go, there are plenty of things that could change…

Eurozone: The rebound continues…for now

The eurozone is still on track to see a very strong third-quarter growth figure. However, recent indicators signal some deceleration. Inflation is…

Eurozone: Short-time work provides cushion to double-dip worries

Worries about a double-dip recession are increasing in the eurozone as disappointing survey data for August provides a reality check on the pace of…

and

United Kingdom

UK: What Brexit means for the economy in 2021

We think it's unrealistic to expect a sudden plunge in GDP once the transition period ends. But whether there's a deal or not, the change in UK-EU…

Central and Eastern Europe: No deflationary threat here

Growth in the CEE region is picking up in line with the eurozone, but in contrast, inflation remains above target. Central banks are unlikely to respond…

China

China: Revising GDP and yuan forecasts

China’s recovery has started and looks sustainable because domestic demand has returned amid fewer Covid-19 cases. This leads us to revise our GDP…

Asia-Ex China: Slow recovery

Shinzo Abe's resignation as Japan's Prime Minister has grabbed the headlines this month. Elsewhere, recovery continues across the region, with…

FX: The dollar bear trend has only just begun

US fiscal policy paralysis and a change in monetary policy strategy from the Federal Reserve make the case for the dollar bear trend extending well into…

Rates

Rates: Why we want a steeper curve

We think the US yield curve can steepen further. We also hope it does. A steeper curve gels with a reflation theme and has wider benefits. It can lift…