16 November 2018
Asia week ahead: Policy clues in the data

Public holidays will keep the Asian calendar relatively quiet for the week ahead, with markets closed in India, Indonesia, Japan and Malaysia. There are no central bank meetings but we're watching specific data to see how it could influence policy decisions in the region

Japan - back in the red

Japan will likely report a trade deficit next week but we don't think this will have any strong implications for the currency. The country essentially operates a balance on trade these days and drifts in and out of deficit with little impact on the yen.

Japanese CPI will rise a little further – in line with the earlier Tokyo release, but core inflation will remain anchored a little above zero. Nothing to excite the Bank of Japan here.

Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

Data from Russia next week should show weakness in household income and spending- which could impact budget policy

National Bank of Hungary: Don't hold your breath

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) meets next week to decide monetary policy - but don't expect any change. Despite the October CPI figure being surprisingly high (3.8% year-on-year), the NBH has signalled that this was driven by temporary factors and it plans to evaluate the situation in detail in December - when it prepares the next inflation report. The bottom line is, don't hold your breath for a change in policy at this meeting. 

There's one other key event to watch; Moody's plans to review its sovereign debt rating. This is the only rating agency which does not have a positive outlook on the country.

Key events in developed markets next week

The eurozone's weak performance will be seen through the lens of PMIs next week. We also have some US second-tier releases but nothing which will stop the Fed hiking in December 

US: On course for a December hike

We get a few second tier US data releases over the coming week, but none of them are likely to alter the outlook for the December FOMC meeting, where we have a high conviction call that the Federal Reserve will raise its main policy rate by 25 basis points for the fourth time this year.

The economy is growing strongly, inflation is above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and the jobs market is robust, with wage pressures on the rise. Given good momentum we expect the Fed to continue hiking interest rates next year. However, they are likely to be less aggressive than in 2018 – we expect three rate moves next year. The economy is facing more headwinds with the lagged effects of higher interest rates and a strong dollar set to slow growth, while trade tensions and weaker external demand are also a threat.

Furthermore, there are some tentative signs of softness in real data, particularly the housing market and investment. The durable goods orders report is already pointing to a slower path ahead for corporate investment while higher mortgage rates are resulting in a slowdown in the housing market. Next week’s data is likely to give us more information on whether this is something that is becoming more troubling.

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Our view on next week’s key events

Discover what ING analysts are looking for next week in our global economic calendars

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