November Economic Monthly: Navigating a sea of waves

US: Groundhog Day

Indications point to a Joe Biden presidency, absent the 'blue wave' that markets had been anticipating. Political animosity means a substantial…

Eurozone: Second leg of the recession coming up

The second wave in Covid-19 infections has led to new lockdowns in the eurozone, most probably leading to a fall back into recession in the fourth…

China’s next five-year plan starts in 2021

The Chinese government's views on technology development are the most important feature of China’s 14th five-year plan, which begins in the new…

Asia escapes fresh Covid waves and remains in better shape

From Asia, the pandemic situation in Europe and the US looks bad and threatens the regions' exports. But the absence of a second wave (or third where…

UK: A turbulent November

We expect England's lockdown to trigger a sharp contraction in November GDP, albeit perhaps not as steep as we saw back in March/April. Alongside…

Central and eastern Europe: Riding the second wave

The CEE region is feeling the heat of the second Covid wave. But with less severe restriction, the economic hit should be less painful too. We also think…

Latin America: Post-pandemic challenges

As the Covid-19 crisis abates across the region, investors are eager for signs that governments will be able to transition to a more hawkish fiscal policy…

FX markets: Lowering your sights

FX markets have reacted to news of a much closer US election by selling currencies most exposed to the global recovery story and buying USD and JPY.…

Rates: You think you’ve seen it all? Wait for it…

Picture what many term the most important US election in living memory. Frame it within a global pandemic not seen in 100 years. Add massive supply to get…