Monthly Economic Update: Another sequel no one needed

US: Waiting for lift-off

The economy will likely continue struggling for the next month or two, but with vaccinations accelerating and households looking cash rich a reopening of…

Eurozone: A delayed recovery

With more stringent lockdowns in the offing and a still underwhelming vaccination campaign, the eurozone economy is likely to shrink again in 1Q. A…

UK: Three reasons to be cheerful

The UK's vaccination programme has exceeded all expectations so far, and it's not inconceivable that all adults will have been offered a first…

China: Impact of muted spring travel

The Chinese New Year is coming and this year is different, as new partial lockdowns reduce domestic travel. We discuss the impact of the change to this…

Asia: Covid catches up

Towards the end of last year, the relatively good performance of most Asian economies in terms of the Covid pandemic started to crack. The deterioration…

CEE: Delayed recovery but no fundamental change to the outlook

The recovery is delayed, but not derailed. Although coming later than expected, we still look for a meaningful rebound from the second quarter. Our…

FX: Challenging our bearish dollar forecast

Our bearish dollar view for 2021 has been built firstly on the Federal Reserve keeping policy very loose and secondly on the synchronised global recovery…

Rates: January, a month of Mondays? I don't think so

Often in January, we'd get some direction for the year ahead. Well this year, take your pick. We've been all over the shop, in rates, credit,…

The return of inflation

The return of inflation could be a major theme in markets this year. It will force the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to balance even more…

Eurozone politics: A taste of what's to come

When it comes to politics this year, there are three countries to watch: Italy, the Netherlands and Germany. All three have dominated the headlines in the…

Brexit: Taking stock after a chaotic month

Trade disruption could deliver a sizeable hit to UK manufacturing output this quarter, while lingering uncertainty and potential instability surrounding…