January’s monthly economic update

January economic update: Hardly a happy new year

2021 is set to be far better than 2020; how could it not be? But before recovery comes later in the year, we're still facing a bleak few months, not…

Carsten on 2021: Things can only get better

Focus on this: We're sure to see a synchronised global recovery in the second half of this year. Right now, there's lots of concern about the…

US: Straining at the leash

The US has, so far, avoided the economic strife seen in Europe resulting from new lockdowns, but caution is warranted given evidence of the new strain…

Eurozone: A false start to the new year

With Covid-19 cases swelling again in the last few months of 2020, several European countries had to tighten containment measures and extend them into…

China: Deleveraging reform resumes

The Chinese economy has recovered well, and therefore the government has restarted structural reform. We have revised our USD/CNY forecast for 2021. The…

UK: Strict shutdowns to give way to sustained spring recovery

While we expect strict lockdowns to trigger a 3% fall in UK GDP in the first quarter, the more optimistic outlook for vaccinations means a sustained…

FX: Dollar downgrade

Despite broadening lockdowns, the recovery trade in FX markets is in full swing and the dollar bear trend is showing no signs of slowing. Trying to time a…

Rates: Collateral damage

Despite ongoing Covid angst, steeper yield curves led by higher long rates gel with a positive vibe for the future. The vaccine helps enormously but big…