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2 March 2023

ING’s March Monthly: The search for a new equilibrium

With a longer period of subdued growth in the eurozone now expected alongside a significant slowdown for the US economy, it seems that recent optimism may have been short-lived. Major economies are still out of sync as the path to renewed balance remains unclear

In this bundle

The search for a new equilibrium

Optimism about an imminent strong economic recovery and a change of tack by the central banks was short-lived. We expect a longer period of subdued growth…

Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

Commodities: Energy concerns ease further

Energy prices came under further pressure in February, particularly when it comes to natural gas. Storage in Europe is looking increasingly comfortable,…

Our latest major central bank calls

We now expect the Fed funds rate to peak at a higher level, but still think rate cuts are likely by year-end. The European Central Bank is likely to slow…

, and

United States

US: Smoke, mirrors and uncertainty by the truckload

Firm numbers for the start of the year have led the market to embrace a higher-for-longer narrative for interest rates. The Federal Reserve is indeed set…

Eurozone: Better than expected doesn’t mean good

Lower energy prices have boosted both business and consumer confidence. However, the better growth outlook will slow the decline in core inflation,…

United Kingdom

UK: Three events that will shape the outlook this month

This month's UK budget will likely result in lower energy bills than planned, but is unlikely to offer any medium-term support. The Bank of England is…

China

China’s recovery is not much of a surprise

Strong consumption during the January holidays eased back in February and infrastructure spending is not growing robustly, either. This hints at only a…

A last hurrah for Asian inflation

The US is not alone in seeing an unwelcome acceleration in inflation in January – a number of Asian economies have seen something similar. But for…

CEE: Inflation finally heading down but still sticky

CEE: Inflation finally heading down but still sticky

Central and Eastern Europe is flirting with a technical recession. Inflation numbers are finally starting to head down but we are clearly in for a bumpy…

, and 2 others

Make no mistake, ECB tightening is having its desired effect

The European Central Bank's policy stance has become restrictive. To us, the impact on the economy is probably the most underestimated drag on growth…

and

FX: Dollar disinflation trade gets postponed

February proved a counter-trend month in FX markets, where firm US activity and price data saw the dollar reclaim a third of its losses since last…

Rates

Rates: Risk mood to tip the balance ahead

We called for the recent rise in market rates, and when they eventually popped it was in a flash. Thematically, inflation stickiness is a key theme, and…

The search for a new equilibrium: ING's March Monthly

Report FX

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Rates

The search for a new equilibrium: ING’s March Monthly

With a longer period of subdued growth in the eurozone now expected alongside a significant slowdown for the US economy, it seems that recent optimism may…