ING’s June Economic Update

The next few weeks present a number of political challenges that could upset global economic growth and financial market confidence. Read what our economists and strategists make of all this

In this bundle

Global outlook: A long, hot summer…

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United States

US: Trading on Trump

US growth appears to be bouncing back sharply in 2Q18, leaving the Federal Reserve on course to hike interest rates three more times this year.…

Eurozone: Politics to the fore again

Italian and Spanish politics provided some drama over the last few weeks, while on the international scene trade tensions are growing. However, despite…

United Kingdom

UK: A summer of tough decisions

Markets have reassessed their Bank of England expectations. But as wage growth rises, we suspect rates hikes are coming

China

China: Strongly against a trade war

The US's changing stance towards China is a reflection of its concern about the rise of China. If the US continues its hostility towards "Made in…

Japan

Japan: The pause that refreshes

The 1Q18 slowdown was likely only a pause, nothing more, and we anticipate activity strengthening in 2Q18 - barring disasters, such as an all-out trade war

FX: Poor visibility

We are cutting our year-end EUR/USD forecast to 1.23 from 1.30

Rates

Rates: Italian hiccup for core

We continue to target 3.25% to 3.5% for the US 10-year and the 50bp to 100bp range for the 10-year German Bund (QE decision dependent)