Bundles

12 May 2023

ING Monthly: We’re in a polycrisis – and this is what it means

There appears to be no respite from seemingly never-ending economic crises and concerns. Our economists and analysts look at what's going on in Europe, Asia and the US

In this bundle

We’re in a polycrisis, and this is what it means

Looking into the second half of this year, it seems as if a US variant of polycrisis is in the making

Three key risks to the global outlook

Stresses in the banking system, failure to resolve the debt ceiling dispute and a surge in gas prices are the key risks

, and 3 others

Financial Institutions

How American and European banks are dealing with the fallout from the US banking turmoil

US bank troubles remain limited to smaller banks so far

Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

Commodities: So much for OPEC+ cuts

Despite near-term risks, the outlook for the second half of the year remains constructive on the back of tighter fundamentals

Our view on the major central banks

All the latest from our team on the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England

, and

United States

The US economy is holding up, despite significant challenges

The US economy is performing well, but there are risks ahead with worries about the debt ceiling and squeezed consumer spending

Debt ceiling stresses heighten US recession risk

A look into what could happen next if the US fails to raise the debt ceiling in time

and

The eurozone’s flying on one engine

The eurozone expansion is now solely fueled by a strong services sector. While inflation is trending downwards, the ECB is likely to hike interest rates at…

China

China’s domestic economy is thriving, but exports remain vulnerable

China's domestic economy rebounded in early May, but exports remain a key risk

Japan

South Korea

Asia not towing the FX line

Why isn't Asian FX tracking EUR/USD?

United Kingdom

The UK inflation story is starting to turn a corner

Markets expect the Bank of England to lag behind the Federal Reserve when it comes to rate cuts

The slow disinflationary trend continues in the CEE

The slow disinflationary trend continues in the CEE

As core inflation persists, central banks in the CEE region are treading carefully – and it's still too soon to signal easing with confidence

, and

Trade

World trade shows signs of diversification

World trade slows as global patterns shift and signs of diversification emerge

and

FX: A stronger case for a weaker dollar

US banking turmoil may be raising the chances of dollar underperformance later this year, but a few risks could keep the dollar afloat in the short term

Rates

Rates: Something’s got to give

Market rates are being pulled in different directions, but something has to give

Report

ING Monthly: We’re in a polycrisis, and this is what it means

The word of the moment appears to be 'polycrisis', defined by Collins as the simultaneous occurrence of several catastrophic events. It's apt,…