Bundles

1 March 2024

ING Monthly: Deciphering the cycle

The global economy is still far from normal and as it continues to search for new balance, our team explains why deciphering the very atypical cycle of recent years will continue to be an enormous challenge for policymakers, markets and ourselves

In this bundle

Deciphering the cycle

Financial markets still think this is a textbook economic cycle. But central bankers are increasingly doubtful

Our latest calls for central banks

All of the latest from our team on ING's central bank forecasts and the key risks

and

United States

Live webinar: Central banks, inflation and the road to rate cuts

Join ING’s economists and strategists on 11 March for a live discussion of the March Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings

, and 3 others

United States

US soft landing still threatened by turbulence

"Soft landing" is the widely held view, but we believe sizeable interest rate cuts are part of the package to deliver that outcome and continue to…

Eurozone economy helped by another mild winter

Lower natural gas prices are helping the eurozone economy to come out of the doldrums

United Kingdom

UK rate cut timing hinges on spring inflation data

Why we're sticking to our call for an August rate cut

China

China gets set for a pivotal month of data and policy announcements

China's Lunar New Year ushered in a quieter period in February, but we'll be keeping an eye out for key data releases and the Two Sessions in a…

Australia

The only way is down (or up) for Australia

Australia’s central bank is still signalling that further rate hikes may be needed, while the market is only pricing in cuts. Where do we stand?

CEE: Different inflation profile, different central bank approach

Inflation is diverging more and more within the region, calling for a different approach by central banks

, and 2 others

Gold awaits clarity on Fed easing path

Fed policy remains a key area to watch for the outlook on gold, and we're expecting to see prices surge in 2024

FX: A dollar decline is delayed, not deterred

Resilient US data can keep the dollar relatively strong for a bit longer, but we still expect a USD decline from 2Q

Rates

Rates: Worried about stubborn inflation

Delivered inflation is still too high and poses issues for bonds. Hence the rising yields

Report

ING’s March Monthly: Deciphering the cycle

The full report on why deciphering the very atypical cycle of recent years will continue to be an enormous challenge for policymakers, markets and ourselves