ING’s February Monthly: This could well be a ‘fool’s spring’

The reopening of the Chinese economy, lower energy prices, and renewed optimism from some sectors mean 2023 is off to a fairly positive start. But we aren't out of the woods yet, and some of this optimism could very well be short-lived

In this bundle

This could well be a ‘fool’s spring’

We should guard against the premature return of optimism even if things seem better than expected

Quick-fire answers to your global economy questions

Give us a minute, and our economists will give you some answers to the global economy's biggest questions, notably around energy and China's…

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Our view on the major central banks

The Fed and Bank of England are closing in on the end of their respective tightening cycles, while the ECB still has more work to do. Greater potential…

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United States

Easing US inflation fears boost hopes for a Fed rescue

US recession fears linger on as softening activity spreads throughout the economy. There are also tentative signs that the labour market is cooling with…

The eurozone’s been saved, in part, by the weather

The significant fall in natural gas prices has probably sheltered the eurozone from a winter recession, though there are still some headwinds that will…

United Kingdom

Lower gas prices point to a more modest recession in the UK

Lower gas prices should herald a fall in consumer energy bills by the summer. A recession is still the base case, but the reduced squeeze on household…

China

China’s rebound starts with consumption

China's economic recovery following its reopening could be unbalanced initially, but a full recovery later in the year is likely

Japan

The Bank of Japan faces tough choices ahead of policy normalisation

Market expectations for a policy change by the Bank of Japan will continue to grow, but it won't move as fast as many in the market might hope

Moment of truth for Central and Eastern Europe

Moment of truth for Central and Eastern Europe

January and February will be a moment of truth for Central and Eastern Europe and confirmation that the region has its own inflation story, more…

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Rates

Rates: Reasons the upside can be tested

Most macro indicators argue for more downward pressure on market rates. However, we think things are more nuanced than that. Belated ECB and Bank of Japan…

FX: Timing the dollar decline

The dollar is around 10% off the highs seen in late September, and understandably the view is that the dollar bull cycle – which started summer 2021…

Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

Commodities: Milder winter offers some comfort to energy markets

A mild European winter has seen gas prices continue to collapse in January and Europe is likely to get through this winter in a comfortable state.…