In case you missed it: When trade, markets and the Fed collide

The Federal Reserve disappointed markets-and President Trump-this week by reining in overly dovish expectations for interest rate cuts. And Trump's subsequent decision to impose further tariffs on China has not helped sentiment, even though current US data remains strong

In this bundle

The Fed’s pre-emptive strike

The Federal Reserve has cut the fed funds target range by 25bp. We characterise this as an early pre-emptive move to help ensure the longest US economic…

United States

Trade trumps positive payrolls

Another decent jobs' report, but with heightened trade tensions posing downside risks for growth, the Fed will remain in easing mode

China

How will China retaliate against higher tariffs?

China is facing a new round of 10% tariffs on $300 billion of goods exported to the US to be effective on 1st September. How China retaliates will…

Trump needs to take a step back to win his trade war

United States

China

Trump needs to take a step back to win his trade war

President Trump needs a trade deal with China in order to claim he is delivering on his promise to improve the terms of trade for the US. For a deal to be…

Japan

South Korea

Japanese-Korean trade tensions worsen

Japan has formally removed South Korea from a list of countries exempted from security export controls. This implies more restrictions and delays on…

United Kingdom

Three takeaways from the Bank of England’s August meeting

Despite an upgrade to growth and inflation forecasts, the Bank of England's latest announcement makes it fairly clear that rates are likely to remain…

What a difference a day makes

Although the eurozone economy is rapidly losing momentum, growth in 2020 might be supported by a higher number of working days. While insufficient to…

Poland

The Polish FX-mortgage saga is back with PLN and POLGBs at risk

The European Court of Justice is to give guidelines for Polish courts on FX mortgages, likely siding with debtors. Banks may face substantial losses,…

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