February Economic Update: Damage containment

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February Economic Update: Damage containment

A tentative reprieve from geopolitics has quickly given way to market concern about coronavirus, overshadowing the short-lived optimism on the US-China…

Coronavirus ‘fear factor’ is the biggest risk to the economy

The coronavirus has already hit domestic demand in China, as well as supply chains further afield. But if the outbreak becomes more widespread overseas,…

and

United States

US: Fighting the fear

Market optimism following the US-China trade deal announcement has given way to fear of what the human and economic cost may be from the coronavirus.…

Eurozone: Zigzagging towards stronger growth

The eurozone ended 2019 on a soft note, with growth decelerating to 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. While the stars are aligned to see a gradual, though subdued,…

China

China’s coronavirus challenge

China faces broad-based challenges from the coronavirus outbreak, from retail to manufacturing to possible defaults in bank loans and bonds. But the…

United Kingdom

UK: Rising optimism tempered by Brexit and virus risks

Despite rising optimism among firms, the risk of an abrupt change in trading relationship with the EU in 2021 means that investment is likely to remain…

Japan

Japan: In case of emergency

Japan only has about 45 cases of coronavirus, but if this is just the start of a bigger outbreak, it could see GDP growth slow sharply

FX: Re-pricing for a shock

FX markets are in the process of adjusting to the coronavirus news – largely seen as a Chinese demand shock. If the virus was to start weighing…

Rates: Path of least resistance

Market rates are likely to remain relatively low; at about current levels or lower in the coming weeks (and likely months). Structural reversion to higher…