Eurozone Quarterly: The gradual, but not great, re-opening

Eurozone: Bottoming out

With the easing of the lockdown measures, growth is picking up in the eurozone albeit very gradually. Additional fiscal stimulus is being put in place but…

Germany: Austerity champion turns into a big spender

Thanks to the government’s U-turn on fiscal policy, Germany should be one of the first and strongest countries to emerge from the crisis

The Netherlands: Cherishing the restrained shock

We think the Dutch economy will shrink by -6% to -8% in 2020 despite a sizeable public support package. As lockdowns ease, economic activity is resuming…

Spain: A terrible shock and a weak recovery

Spain has been one of the worst-hit countries by Covid-19, both in terms of health and the economic perspective. The severe lockdown measures have had a…

France: Looking for a breath of fresh air

Now that French economic restrictions are easing, President Macron is looking for a second wind to take him to the next Presidential elections which are…

Italy: Still in emergency mode

Unfavourable lockdown accounting has been calling for compensating temporary measures so far. Looming use of EU facilities should help mark a change in…

Greece: Tourism is the major casualty

A mildly negative 1Q20 reflects smaller contagion but 2Q20 will look much worse and the strength of the 3Q rebound will crucially hinge on international…

Portugal: Swift response, but a sharp shock anyway

Portugal reacted swiftly after the first Covid-19 infection was detected around mid-March. But the subsequent lockdown has had a huge impact, even if they…

Belgium: Multiple challenges ahead

Like most economies, Belgium is experiencing an unprecedented health and economic shock. Despite the accurate assessment of the losses incurred during the…

Ireland: Defying gravity?

While GDP increased by 1.2% in the first quarter, it is set to plunge in the second quarter as the Irish domestic economy struggles with Covid-19 like…

Austria: Crucial summer for recovery

Even though Austria has managed to come out of the lockdown faster than most other eurozone countries, the upcoming vacation period will be key for the…

Finland: Milder than the rest

The Finnish economy shrank by -0.9% in 1Q, but will be harder hit in the second quarter. Still, the impact will likely be smaller than in most of the…

EU Summit: A bit united in still a lot of diversity

No white smoke so far on the EU Recovery Fund, but that was not to be expected today. Some encouraging signs point to the fact that the fund will be going…

Eurozone: Debt monetisation by stealth

While the ECB is not allowed to monetise debt formally in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, there seems to be some scope to do so, without fear of…