Commodities Outlook 2025: A bearish horizon

Commodities Outlook 2025: A bearish horizon

We see large parts of the complex edging lower in 2025, while external risks appear skewed to the downside

Oil market set to be in surplus despite OPEC+ action

The global oil market is set to return to surplus in 2025 despite OPEC+ extending supply cuts

Weaker natural gas assuming no surprises

The European gas market faces several risks heading into 2025, but our balance suggests prices should trend lower next year

A sluggish year ahead for carbon demand

We expect a modest recovery in EUAs next year, but demand risks persist

Trump and China add to copper headwinds in 2025

US tariffs and a stronger dollar could further depress copper prices

Aluminium deficit to support prices in 2025

The global aluminium market will return to a deficit in 2025 on slower output growth

Downside risks persist for nickel amid supply glut

Nickel's performance in 2024 has been dire - and we think that's likely to continue into 2025

Iron ore set to struggle amid subdued steel demand

We think that downside risks are likely to prevail for iron ore 2025

Gold’s rally isn't over just yet

We see gold being driven to new highs in 2025

Why the corn market is set to tighten

Global corn stocks are set to fall further over 2025/26

Tighter wheat means higher prices

We expect both the global and US wheat market to tighten next season

Trade friction clouds an already bearish soybean market

The global soybean market is set to be well supplied through 2025

Global sugar surplus depends on India

We see the sugar market in surplus in 2024/25, which should see prices edging lower

Tightness lingers in the cocoa and coffee market

Cocoa and coffee prices have seen extreme volatility this year, and we think this could be set to continue through 2025