Sustainability

Bundles

6 September 2021

Asia’s race to net-zero: 12.4 trillion dollars and counting

Asia emits half the world's carbon dioxide, but China, Japan and South Korea are now embarking on net-zero carbon plans. How much is this going to cost in terms of new electricity generation capacity? We estimate $12.4tr for just the transport sector alone. Here's our major new report in easily accessible sections

In this bundle

Poland

Why Poland’s external position is beginning to deteriorate

Poland's current account deficit reached nearly €1.5bn in September

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Report Financial Institutions

Bank Outlook 2025: Bank risks and market shifts

Our comprehensive look at the challenges and opportunities facing financial institutions next year

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Financial Institutions

How preferred is preferred senior?

Upcoming revisions to the CMDI framework and CRR amendments are generally negative for preferred senior unsecured bonds

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Less sustainable issuance by banks in 2025

Financial Institutions

Sustainability

Less sustainable issuance by banks in 2025

Banks are expected to reduce their issuance of sustainable formats next year against the backdrop of overall lower issuance volumes

Financial Institutions

Keeping an eye on private markets’ not so private vulnerabilities

The growth and influence of Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries are facing heightened scrutiny

From peaks to plateau: EUR bank bond supply in 2025

Next year’s EUR bank bond supply is expected to stay high albeit less heavy than in 2024

Financial Institutions

ECB rate cuts will benefit bank loan quality

The European Central Bank moves to rate-cutting mode to support bank loan quality

FX Daily: CPI may keep dollar going

The dollar rally is at risk of some positioning-led correction, but our expectation is that US core CPI will come in at a relatively hot 0.3% MoM

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FX Markets in 2025 - ING’s big calls

ING's FX calls for 2025 after Trump's victory and the implications for monetary policy and growth

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Rates

Rates Spark

Rates Spark: Another hot US CPI expected

US CPI numbers will be published today, which may pare back Fed easing expectations further

Asia Morning Bites

Tariff talk and Trump trades drive Asian FX weaker

, and 2 others

The Netherlands

Dutch pension funds may demand more shorter-dated hedges

Dutch pension funds are making preparations for upcoming reforms, including protection of their funding ratios to ensure a smooth transition

Hungary

Hungarian inflation sees a slight increase

Hungary's inflation rate came in lower than expected, but we see a temporary acceleration from here

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Turkey

Turkey’s current account remains benign in September

We think Turkey's current policy mix is helping to improve the country's balance of payments

Romania

Why we’re raising our inflation forecasts for Romania

Upside surprise in Romanian inflation

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United Kingdom

UK wage growth remains sticky despite cooling jobs market

UK wage growth appears stuck in the 4.5-5% area, despite falling private sector employment and lower vacancy rates

FX Daily: Options market suggests active engagement in dollar rally

Global markets are settling into core trades of a firmer dollar, higher US equities and higher terminal rate from the Fed

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Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Natural gas surges

Natural gas prices in the US and Europe surged higher yesterday. Short covering in Henry Hub provided more momentum to the rally

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Report Credit

US Dollar Credit Supply: We expect higher USD supply in 2025

We expect USD corporate supply to increase to US$850bn in 2025, making it a bumper year but not record-breaking

Report Credit

Euro Credit Supply: Another year of hefty EUR supply in 2025

We forecast €400bn in EUR corporate supply in 2025

Czech Republic

Rise in Czech headline and core inflation suggest a cautious policy stance

Headline and core inflation picked up in October, with the price dynamics in the service sector unbroken

Live Event: FX Markets in 2025

Join ING’s FX Strategy team to discover their views on what a Republican clean sweep could mean for FX markets

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Commodities, Food & Agri

WASDE update: Soybean yield revisions tighten up market

The USDA’s latest monthly WASDE report was constructive for soybeans

FX Daily: The name Lighthizer sends tremors through FX

The announcement of Trump's incoming team should keep the dollar supported

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Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Chinese measures weigh on complex

The complex came under pressure on Friday after the market was left disappointed with the Chinese government’s debt package

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Turkey

Monitoring Turkey: Change of behaviour by the Central Bank of Turkey

Monitoring Turkey on monthly economic developments

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Czech Republic

Czech National Bank Review: lower rates, slower growth, and higher inflation

The CNB lowered the base rate by 25bp, as expected by the markets. The new forecast represents a shift in a stagflationary direction, with inflation flying…

Romania

National Bank of Romania Review: treading through uncertain waters

No change in Romania's base rate

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THINK Ahead: Expect the…expected

James Smith’s indispensable guide to what you should be watching out for next week

, and 4 others

United States

Watch: Europe’s problems just got bigger after Trump’s victory

The challenges for Europe after Trump's US victory

Turkey

Turkey’s central bank pushes inflation forecasts up for 2025

The CBT has revised its inflation forecasts up above 20% for next year

What a Trump presidency means for oil and gas markets

Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

United States

What a Trump presidency means for oil and gas markets

Energy markets are trying to digest what another Trump term could bring for oil and gas prices

China

China announces huge debt package ahead of ‘forceful’ stimulus

China announces measures to tackle local government debt issues

FX Daily: Central banks turn a blind eye to political events

Dollar post-election longs have been unwound

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Rates

Rates Spark

Rates Spark: BoE and Fed follow up with more cuts

The BoE and Fed delivered largely anticipated cuts, but were reluctant to provide more guidance. Treasury and Gilt yields declined, while Bunds struggled

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Rates

Rates: On Bunds swap spreads…

Bund spreads versus OIS are back to pre ECB QE levels, but persistent structural headwinds and political turmoil still warrant caution

United States

The Fed cuts by 25bp, and hints at more gradual cuts in the future

The US Fed cuts rates by 25bp

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Poland

Poland’s central bank governor takes a somewhat dovish tone

A more dovish tone from the NBP governor

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United States

Carsten: What a second Trump term means for you

The Trump effect on Europe and the rest of the world

United States

US: Trump emboldened by strong mandate

Election clarity and low taxes boost 2025 growth forecasts, but Trump's policies pose downside risks for 2026

The upside and downside risks to our global outlook

Our take on what could go right or wrong for the global economy over the coming months

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The US election aftermath for central banks

The US presidential election means fewer rate cuts for the Fed and more for the ECB

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OPEC+ adds to uncertainty in the oil market

Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

OPEC+ adds to uncertainty in the oil market

Oil and gas set to fall, but gold could rise further

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Eurozone’s third-quarter growth surge could prove to be an illusion

A negative sentiment shock in the wake of Trump's victory is likely to depress eurozone growth over the winter

United Kingdom

The UK’s bond yield spike is reaching its limits

British 10-year government bond yields have risen almost as far as in the US since the start of October on budget concerns

China

China’s economy stabilises but November’s uncertainties loom large

China's economic data shows a mild uptick, but key November catalysts loom

Japan

Stable inflation supports Bank of Japan’s policy normalisation

We believe the Bank of Japan will hike rates by 25bp each quarter until it reaches 1.0%

CEE: Fiscal risk amid global turbulence

The region's economy continues to disappoint although the recovery from last year is still underway

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FX: Some clarity returns

We think a new Trump administration should be bullish for the dollar

Rates

Rates: Expect the unexpected

Market rates have decided that the only way is up, for now

Report

ING Monthly: What a second Trump term means for you

The Trump effect on Europe and the rest of the world

United Kingdom

Bank of England cuts rates and downplays budget impact

The Bank of England has signalled the UK's budget isn't a game changer for future interest rate cuts

Czech Republic

Czech spenders go wild as retail sales surge

Real retail sales in September increased by 5.6% year-on-year

Asia week ahead: China data dump in focus

Incoming data from China will be a key highlight, along with Japan's GDP figures and Australia's unemployment rate

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Hungary

Hungarian retail sales struggle

Hungarian retail sales have remained below the 2021 average, showing no tendency to grow

New President, new EUR/USD forecasts

We are revising our EUR/USD forecast lower following the Republican clean sweep

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Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Complex recovers

Commodities are recovering this morning after yesterday’s heavy sell-off on the back of a surge in the US dollar following Trump's win

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FX Daily: Back to the central bankers

Look for dollar consolidation today as attention turns to central bank meetings

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Rates

Rates Spark: Markets move as predicted

The market moves in the aftermath of the elections were as expected. Next on the agenda are the Fed and Bank of England policy meetings

German industrial production still not bottoming out

Recent political developments have further darkened the already bleak short-term outlook for the German economy

Germany

German government collapses and snap elections loom in March

German Chancellor Scholz has sacked his finance minister and snap elections loom

Poland

Poland’s central bank holds rates steady amid rising inflation forecasts and slower growth

NBP rates on hold in November

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Rates

United States

Watch: How Trump’s win is changing market sentiment

Trump's win and the market reaction

Czech Republic

Czech industry attempts to recover from prolonged slump

We see the September reading as the first sign that the Czech industry is getting out of its protracted malaise

Romania

National Bank of Romania preview: Holding through the uncertainties

The arguments for keeping rates in place are stronger than the ones for delivering another cut, in our view

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Hungary

Hungarian industry still shows gloomy picture

General economic activity still held back by Hungarian industry

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What Donald Trump’s victory means for China

Chinese assets sold off after news of Trump's re-election

United States

Trump wins: Tax cuts come with a cost

Tax cuts support growth, but promised tariffs, immigration controls and higher borrowing costs will become headwinds

, and 3 others

Rates

Rates Spark

Rates Spark: US yields rise amid rising Trump clean sweep bets

Markets brace for a republican clean sweep as 10Y yields rise beyond 4.4%

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FX Daily: Markets call a Republican clean sweep

Trump trades have boosted the dollar across the board

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Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Markets await election outcome

Oil prices have held relatively steady as the market awaits the outcome of the US election

Asia Morning Bites

Asian markets waiting on US exit polls

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Poland

National Bank of Poland preview: Policymakers to wait for the March inflation projection

NBP rates are likely to remain unchanged in November

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Putting a price on nature: why preserving our biodiversity doesn't have to be costly

Opinion

By Thijs Geijer and Marieke Blom

Putting a price on nature: why preserving our biodiversity doesn’t have to be costly

Biodiversity loss is an expensive problem, but some interventions don't have to be costly for consumers and society

FX Daily: Markets preparing for high volatility

FX markets are pricing in exceptionally high levels of volatility now

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Rates

Rates Spark

Rates Spark: Minor adjustment in Trump trade

US markets have trimmed down the Trump trade slightly after some positive headlines for Harris. Implied rates volatility remains close to record highs

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Australia

RBA leaves cash rate steady, leaving options open

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left policy rates unchanged but revised down its 2025 growth forecasts. We don't expect any easing until 1Q25

Asia Morning Bites

Softer Korean inflation and RBA decision - but most attention in Asia will be focused on the political events in the US for the next day or so

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Czech Republic

CNB preview: Inflation temporarily above the tolerance band

The CNB is expected to make another small interest rate cut

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Bank of England: Five things to watch this week

Rates

United Kingdom

Bank of England: Five things to watch this week

Our guide to Thursday's Bank of England meeting

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Turkey

Turkey sees an improvement in the underlying services inflation trend

Turkish inflation was 2.9% in October, higher than the market consensus of 2.5%

FX Daily: Let US election volatility begin

The US election result will get mixed up with central bank announcements this week

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Germany

Risk of the German government collapsing appears higher than ever

Since last week, the risk of the German government collapsing has become higher than ever

Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: OPEC+ delays supply increase

Oil prices are trading stronger this morning after OPEC+ members delayed a supply increase by another month

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United States

Federal Reserve to cut by 25bp irrespective of election outcome

We're expecting another rate cut from the Fed next week, no matter who wins the US presidential election

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Energy

Poland

The uncertain road to carrying out Poland’s ambitious energy strategy

Poland's 2030-2040 energy strategy is a demanding one - and politically, it's not going to be easy to implement

THINK Ahead: The oohs and ahhs of this week’s electoral and fiscal fireworks

The US election, the Fed, and so much more all set to unfold this week

How the outcome of the US election will affect the healthcare sector

US election has important consequences for healthcare sector

United States

Weak US jobs report confirms Fed has increasing room to cut rates

US jobs growth slowed markedly in October

Watch: The dollar’s dominance is secure, despite BRICS countries’ hopes

BRICS countries and the dominance of the US dollar

Sweden

Riksbank November preview: 50bp cut likely, but watch post-US election volatility

Consensus and markets are aligned for a 50bp cut

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Credit

Live event: ING Outlook - Credit Markets in 2025

Join ING’s credit analysts as they look ahead to 2025 and guide you through their views on strategy, with additional thoughts on banks and real estate.

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TMT

AI Monthly: Soaring costs of GenAI challenge short-term profitability

The soaring costs of generative AI are difficult to align with short-term profitability, presenting a dilemma for AI investors

FX Daily: This isn’t a mini-budget rerun for sterling

A gradual depreciation of GBP looks more likely than a severe selloff

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Rates

Rates Spark

Rates Spark: Payrolls Friday looms

The market is running 10y USTs at an elevated 4.3% into a US payrolls figure with a 105k consensus – that would be its lowest reading since 2020

Asia Morning Bites

Korean trade and China's Caixin PMI

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Gold's record-breaking rush and the US election impact

Commodities, Food & Agri

United States

Gold’s record-breaking rush and the US election impact

We think gold should perform well regardless of next week's US election outcome. But has that always been the case?

United States

US Goldilocks story gives the Fed scope to cut rates another 25bp

The labour market and economic activity remain in decent shape while inflation pressures are subsiding

Italy

Italian inflation up marginally in October

Italian inflation marginally up in October. While the trough should be behind us, the reflation, helped by phasing out energy base effects, will likely be…

Taiwan

Taiwan’s third-quarter GDP beats expectations

Third quarter GDP beat market forecasts once again on the strength of domestic demand