Three scenarios for the global economy and energy prices as winter beckons

With the global economy in the grips of various crises and uncertainties, it once again makes sense to view the outlook through scenarios. But unlike during Covid – where most countries were up against a common set of challenges – each economy is facing a unique cocktail of several key issues. A one-size-fits-all approach to scenario planning no longer makes sense. This article outlines three scenarios for each of the major economies we cover, and delves into what they imply for growth, inflation and central bank policy.