Key events in EMEA next week

According to Turkey's central bank its forecast path in the inflation report show end of the third quarter or the beginning of the last quarter for “the significant fall” in the headline inflation. Given that currently low ex-post real rates and ongoing risks to outlook leave little room to act, we do not expect any rate change from the CBT in the June meeting.

However, improvement in inflation should allow the bank to come up with a moderate easing with a likely first move in October

On Monday the Polish central bank will publish the April balance on the current account. We expect an increase of the surplus to €1.3bn, from €0.9bn in March (consensus at €1.2bn). On Tuesday the final print should confirm May CPI at 4.8% (as in the flash estimate), indicating continued strong pressure from the core and the low base for fuel prices.

On Friday, we'll get labour market data and we think we'll get higher employment in May as restrictions were eased, transferring to acceleration of the YoY growth to 2.5% from 0.9% the previous month (market consensus at 2.4%). The wage growth should be at 10% YoY compared to 9.9% in April and the consensus at 10.2%.