Key events in EMEA next week

A strong recovery of domestic demand in Poland, particularly household consumption, has been accompanied by a deterioration in the current account. In June, the surplus shrank to EUR0.3bn. Merchandise exports, despite double-digit levels, grew significantly less than imports. We expect a similar story in July, leading to a current account deficit of EUR 0.8bn, slightly higher than market expectations (deficit at EUR 0.3bn). The rebound in demand is keeping the inflationary pressure strong in Poland. Preliminary data, which we expect to be confirmed by GUS next week, showed that CPI inflation in August rose to the highest level in the last 20 years. This is partly due to the acceleration of the core CPI, to 3.9% year-on-year as we expect.