Key events in EMEA and LATAM next week

In Hungary, we expect the manufacturing PMI to head south, in line with the recent moves all across Europe. The latest hard data could also be mixed. We think industrial production could disappoint, having come to a temporary halt in February, while retail sales may soar further given increasing real disposable incomes.

There is also a general election set to take place on 8 April, where our base case is for a Fidesz/KDNP win with a simple majority. From a market perspective, this should be a fairly neutral/slightly positive outcome.

We expect Polish CPI to remain soft next week, which will support the MPC's dovish rhetoric. Elsewhere, manufacturing sentiment should remain stable, despite drops in other Eurozone countries.

Thanks to supportive base effects, we expect inflation to decline to 10.1% in March (from 10.26% previously), despite the recent weakening in the TRY which has been the main factor keeping core inflation sticky. However, there are upside risks given an ongoing deterioration in pricing behaviour.