Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) meets next week to decide monetary policy - but don't expect any change. Despite the October CPI figure being surprisingly high (3.8% year-on-year), the NBH has signalled that this was driven by temporary factors and it plans to evaluate the situation in detail in December - when it prepares the next inflation report. The bottom line is, don't hold your breath for a change in policy at this meeting.

There's one other key event to watch; Moody's plans to review its sovereign debt rating. This is the only rating agency which does not have a positive outlook on the country.

Russian activity data for October should show a further post-electoral deceleration in household income and consumption growth.

The weakness in consumption is driven by the low-income segment, which is dependent on the budget policy. Declining consumer optimism, combined with overall weakness in economic activity (GDP growth decelerated to 1.3% YoY in 3Q from 1.9% YoY in 2Q) as well as lower popular support in the regions, could strengthen calls in favour of easing in the budget policy in 2019-21. This is relative to a very tight draft.