Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

In Poland, we expect April retail sales to contract by nearly 20% YoY. This should be the worst reading, as lockdown restrictions have been gradually loosened in May.

We expect a smaller contraction in manufacturing activity in April compared to the eurozone. However, widespread Covid infections in the mining industry may affect industrial activity and weigh on GDP also in the coming months.

Labour market data should provide evidence of the limited contraction in employment in April. We expect the unemployment rate to increase more significantly from May onwards.

We expect the Central Bank of Turkey to continue to reduce the policy rate (1-week repo rate) by 75 basis points to 8%, as evidenced by revisions to the inflation forecast, which provide room for more easing, as well as the recent strength in the Turkish lira following decisions by the banking regulator.