Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

Given the recent volatility in the currency with reviving geopolitical concerns, we think Turkey's central bank will be cautious and opt not to make a move in February, keeping the policy rate flat at 11.25%

Russian retail trade data is out next week and is expected to accelerate, thanks to the statistical base effect, while industrial output growth may show some weakness due to abnormally warm temperatures, which reduced demand for electricity and heat generation. At the same time, splurge in budget spending that took place in January and became apparent this week may lead to some positive surprises in the activity data. Meanwhile, later in the year, some negative effects from the coronavirus outbreak may start to kick in too.

Faster budget spending also means less downward pressure on CPI, which seems to have stabilised at 2.4% YoY in the first half of February, based on preliminary weekly data. At the same time, given the recent dovish shift in the Bank of Russia's stance and the potential reduction of pressure on RUB thanks to the design of the Sberbank ownership transfer, we continue to see scope for a further reduction in the key rate in 1-2Q20.