Three reasons why Hungary's MPC meeting shouldn't surprise
In Hungary, the earlier-than-usual Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting- due to a national holiday on 23 October- will likely be a non-event given (1) the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) made a lot of adjustments just three weeks ago; (2) one of them was that the NBH will do major adjustments only quarterly when it releases its new Inflation Report; and (3) the September inflation readings didn’t provide any major surprise as core inflation was at 2.4% year-on-year.
Russia: Industrial and consumer activity to soften
We expect Russian economic activity indicators for September to show signs of softening compared to the summer months. Industrial output should slow after the completion of large state-sponsored CAPEX projects and as result of calendar effects. The preliminary gauge of consumer sentiment also points to a likely deceleration in spending growth following the end of the electoral cycle, the recent budget policy decision and a new round of external uncertainties.
Poland's confidence indicators worsening should see sub-consensus data releases
We expect sub-consensus industrial production (3.9%YoY), wages (6.7%) and retail sales (7%) figures in September. Monthly activity data from 3Q18 still suggests GDP growth of close to 5% YoY, but given the worsening of nearly all confidence indicators, a slowdown in the 4Q is the most likely scenario.