Asia week ahead: RBI likely to pause while China’s exports rise

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting on 7 June is unlikely to result in any change to the 6.5% policy repurchase rate. Indian inflation remains relatively well-behaved, while PMI data continues to point to robust growth, irrespective of volatility in the GDP numbers. The RBI remains focused on maintaining stability in the exchange rate, and until we see international rates starting to be cut, it is unlikely that the RBI will change its own policy rates.

The Caixin manufacturing PMI will be published on Monday, where markets are looking for a small uptick to 51.6 from the previous month’s 51.4 measure. The Caixin PMI has mostly been outperforming the official PMI over the past year; given that Caixin PMI respondents are more weighted toward the private sector, this sends a slightly conflicting signal amid other signs of weak private sector sentiment.

China’s May trade data is scheduled for Friday, where we are expecting the base effect to lead to a rebound of exports to 8.8% year-on-year and a slight moderation of imports to 5.5% YoY. The impact of new tariffs from the US will have no bearing on this release as they not expected to take effect until August.

Ahead of this year's first quarter GDP release on 5 June, we'll see private capital expenditure data as well as the contribution to GDP from net exports, which will help to set the scene for the first quarter. Fourth quarter GDP in 2023 registered an increase of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, and at this stage, we aren’t expecting the first quarter figure of this year to be much different – which would be equivalent to growth slowing from 1.5% YoY to just 1.2%.

Taiwan releases the May manufacturing PMI data on Monday. Here, markets will watch out for a second consecutive month of expansion or a fall back into contraction. Prior to April’s rise to 50.2, the manufacturing PMI had been in contraction since May 2022, and given seasonality factors, odds may be balanced toward a return to contraction. May CPI data is scheduled for Thursday, where we are expecting a small uptick to bring CPI to 2.1% YoY.

Finally, trade data will be published on Friday, where we are looking for an uptick of exports to 8.8% YoY and a small moderation of imports to 4.2% YoY for a trade balance of USD6.8bn.

We believe a strong chip cycle should boost exports and manufacturing activity in South Korea. Exports in May are expected to rise 15.3% YoY on the back of strong chip exports. The recovery is somewhat limited, however, to the semiconductor sector. As a result, the manufacturing PMI is expected to remain below neutral level, although we could see an improvement from the previous month.

The most anticipated data release next week in Japan should be labour cash earnings and household spending in April. We don’t expect a dramatic advance, as we think the latest shunto results are likely to take effect from May.

Indonesia and the Philippines report their latest inflation reports next week. Indonesia’s inflation could tiptoe higher to 3.1% YoY as IDR weakness feeds through to imported inflation.  This translates to roughly a 0.15% growth on a month-on-month basis. We believe Bank Indonesia (BI) could be open to further tightening should IDR weakness persist and inflation trend closer to the top end of the central bank’s 1.5-3.5% target.

Meanwhile, inflation in the Philippines is also likely to edge higher, ticking up to 4.0%YoY due to an increase in domestic gasoline prices. Expensive rice prices are also likely to push up the headline number, but core inflation could edge lower to 3.0% YoY. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas recently struck a more dovish tone – possibly as its focus shifts to falling core inflation and moderating growth.