Asia week ahead: Policy clues in the data
Public holidays will keep the Asian calendar relatively quiet for the week ahead, with markets closed in India, Indonesia, Japan and Malaysia. There are no central bank meetings but we're watching specific data to see how it could influence policy decisions in the region
Japan - back in the red
Japan will likely report a trade deficit next week but we don't think this will have any strong implications for the currency. The country essentially operates a balance on trade these days and drifts in and out of deficit with little impact on the yen.
Japanese CPI will rise a little further – in line with the earlier Tokyo release, but core inflation will remain anchored a little above zero. Nothing to excite the Bank of Japan here.
Singapore's core inflation - reassurance for the central bank
Singapore's 3Q GDP might well be revised slightly lower than the initial 2.6% year-on-year figure, based on weaker industrial production data for September. On the expenditure side, retail sales point to slower consumer spending growth, though this may be offset by strength in investment.
Singapore also releases October inflation figures which shouldn’t unduly change the prevailing picture, namely a weak headline rate. But stripping out private accommodation and transport, we could see a much higher core figure, allowing the Monetary Authority of Singapore to feel vindicated in their decision to tighten last month. So long as the core rate remains below 2.0%, a subsequent April tightening will hang in the balance.
Bank of Thailand - hawkish tone could be subdued
Thai GDP for 3Q18 will likely deliver a weak 3.7% YoY growth rate, following soft manufacturing data released late last month. Weak service sector indicators may also reflect declining tourism inflows from China. Despite this, the Bank of Thailand has been sounding increasingly hawkish. So it's possible that the run of next week’s data will curb their enthusiasm for hikes a little.
South east Asia picks - Taiwanese export numbers up from 2Q18
Other south-east Asian releases include the Philippine's October balance of payments data. This should improve as we move into year-end on lower oil prices and rising remittances.
The pick of the Taiwanese data next week is probably 3Q18 export orders. Weakness in electronics demand across the region and especially from key economies like Korea, and a generally downbeat mood in the tech sector may be outweighed this quarter by attempts to front-run incoming and rising tariff rates, so the 7.0% forecast would be an improvement from 2Q18.
Asia Economic Calendar
Tags
AsiaDownload
Download article
16 November 2018
Our view on next week’s key events This bundle contains 3 Articles
"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).