Asia week ahead: 3Q GDP numbers due from northeast Asian countries
Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan report 3Q GDP numbers next week, and we expect export strength to have outweighed domestic demand weakness, but that won’t be enough to pull year-on-year growth back into positive territory just yet
Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan report 3Q GDP
Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan are the next in line to report their GDP figures for 3Q20 over the next week.
The Covid-19 lockdowns sharply dented GDP in the second quarter but as economies re-opened, they clawed back some lost ground last quarter. However, the risk to this stems from the second wave further suppressing domestic demand. All three northeast Asian countries releasing GDP data suffered from the second wave over the last quarter.
On the flip side, accelerated export recovery should bode well for the GDP numbers. We expect export strength to outweigh domestic demand weakness producing a strong GDP bounce over 2Q. However, that won’t be enough to pull the year-on-year growth back into positive territory just yet.
What else?
China’s industrial profits growth is on a steady upward trend in September, signalling steady investment and GDP growth in the period ahead. Likewise, forward-looking indicators in Korea including consumer and business confidence data should guide us on the recovery in the final quarter of the year.
Lots of Japanese activity releases will come as fresh inputs for the Bank of Japan policymakers deciding the policy next week (29 October), though none of these are likely to change the current policy stance.
Moving to the south, manufacturing releases from Singapore and Thailand for September and trade figures from Malaysia will help us fine-tune 3Q GDP estimates for these countries.
Asia Economic Calendar
Tags
Asia week aheadDownload
Download article23 October 2020
Our view on next week’s events This bundle contains {bundle_entries}{/bundle_entries} articles
"THINK Outside" is a collection of specially commissioned content from third-party sources, such as economic think-tanks and academic institutions, that ING deems reliable and from non-research departments within ING. ING Bank N.V. ("ING") uses these sources to expand the range of opinions you can find on the THINK website. Some of these sources are not the property of or managed by ING, and therefore ING cannot always guarantee the correctness, completeness, actuality and quality of such sources, nor the availability at any given time of the data and information provided, and ING cannot accept any liability in this respect, insofar as this is permissible pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations.
This publication does not necessarily reflect the ING house view. This publication has been prepared solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved.
ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam).