Asia week ahead: Chinese inflation and key data on South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan

Japan election preview: What a big LDP win could mean for the economy, bonds and the yen
South Korea’s moderating inflation won’t prompt central bank to cut rates
Why the “Mother of All Deals” with EU matters for India
China’s soft PMI data suggests domestic challenges carried over into 2026

China releases its January CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday. We expect CPI inflation to come in at 0.5% year-on-year, slightly lower than December’s 0.8%, as the Lunar New Year effect weighs on the data. The PPI is likely to remain negative for the 40th consecutive month, though it is expected to move higher to around -1.3% YoY amid higher commodity prices this month. China’s 70-city property prices are also expected to be released next Friday. Prices are likely to continue to see sequential declines as the sector awaits further policy support.

Taiwan’s January trade data will be released on Monday. We look for strong trade numbers to continue, with 47.1% YoY export growth and 52.0% import growth, resulting in a trade surplus of $13.4bn.

We expect South Korea’s jobless rate to drop significantly to 3.2% in January from 4% the previous month. This monthly fluctuation is primarily due to the government job programmes schedule, with most public job programmes launching in the first quarter.

Japan’s labour cash earnings are expected to improve amid strong winter bonuses. This month, real cash earnings should turn positive, helped by the recent drop in inflation. This trend is expected to persist, supporting BoJ rate hikes in the second quarter