Asia week ahead: Key data on China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan

On Monday, we don’t expect major surprises from China’s August trade data in light of the extension of the US-China trade war truce, which kept tariffs at the status quo. Export growth could slow to around 3.8% year on year, while imports could continue to pick up to around 6.2% YoY, thanks to base effects from 2024.

August inflation data, to be released on Wednesday, could show price pressures dipped back into negative territory at around -0.1% YoY after coming in at zero in July.

When Taiwan releases its August trade data on Tuesday, we will be on the lookout for any early signs of a pullback after the tariff hikes from 10% to 20% during the month. After Taiwan's government characterized the 20% rate as temporary, it’s possible that prospective importers held off in hopes that the tariff could soon be lowered. This may be more evident in subsequent months than in August. We look for export growth to slow to 29.5% YoY, while import growth continues to accelerate to 32.9% YoY.

South Korea’s unemployment rate is expected to stay at 2.5% for a second consecutive month. Unusually severe weather conditions may have reduced employment in agriculture and construction, while leisure-related services may see an increase in jobs. Aided by government support for small businesses, the unemployment rate may stay at the current low level for a considerable time.

Japan’s second-quarter GDP likely remained near the flash estimate of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth. Meanwhile, the August producer price index is projected to rise to 2.7% YoY, indicating continued pipeline price pressures.