ASEAN Morning Bytes

Economic data should take centre stage this week with reports likely to remind investors of the negative impact from Covid-19.

Nicholas Mapa

Senior Economist, Philippines

In this article

EM Space: Data calendar is loaded this week and should give direction for trading What to look out for: Regional data and Covid-19 developments

EM Space: Data calendar is loaded this week and should give direction for trading

General Asia: After market players reacted to hopeful trends on the virus front last week, economic data should remind investors of the bleak economic situation ahead even as governments from previous hotspots ready the gradual reopening of their economies. Regional PMI manufacturing data kicked off the data dump on Monday, with economies registering deep contractions with most countries employing some form of lockdown by April. The economic calendar is packed in the coming days with growth, trade and inflation data all set for release with downbeat reports likely the backdrop for trading this week.
Singapore: The April manufacturing PMI is due today, with expectations centred on a drop in the index to an all-time low of 40.0 from 45.4 in March. The extended circuit-breaker measures mean the surprising manufacturing strength shown in the first quarter is poised to be reversed in the current quarter, leaving GDP on a path to a record contraction.
Malaysia: March trade figures are due today. Firmer exports from most Asian economies in March impart some upside risk to the -8.3% YoY consensus on Malaysia’s exports. However, underlying the weak consensus is the dent to activity due to the Covid-19 lockdown started in mid-March. Trade is the last piece of economic data for the central bank (BNM) beginning its two-day policy meeting today. We expect a 50bp cut in the overnight policy rate to 2.00%.
Indonesia: Indonesia reports data on inflation for April, with market consensus at 2.8% as depressed crude oil prices help keep price pressures at bay for the time being. Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Warjiyo indicated that inflation will likely be within target this year, likely due to lower oil prices and subdued demand due to slowing economic growth momentum. We expect inflation to remain well-behaved in the coming months, leaving the door open for further easing from the central bank should the recent IDR rally be sustained as foreign investors return to snatch up both equities and bonds.

What to look out for: Regional data and Covid-19 developments

Malaysia trade (4 May)
Indonesia inflation (4 May)
Hong Kong GDP (4 May)
US factory orders (4 May)
Philippines remittances (4 May)
Thailand inflation (5 May)
Philippines inflation (5 May)
Indonesia GDP (5 May)
Singapore retail sales (5 May)
Malaysia BNM policy (5 May)
Hong Kong retail sales (5 May)
US trade (5 May)
Hong Kong and Singapore PMI (6 May)
Philippines trade (6 May)
Taiwan inflation (6 May)
US ADP employment (6 May)
China Caixin PMI services (7 May)
Philippines GDP (7 May)
China trade (7 May)
US initial jobless claims (7 May)
Malaysia industrial production (8 May)
Taiwan trade (8 May)
US non-farm payrolls (8 May)

Author

Nicholas Mapa

Senior Economist, Philippines

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