World trade volumes continue rising while they can

Imports and exports have been increasing in most countries and regions since hitting a low point in May, when world trade volumes were down 18% on a year earlier. The recovery promises to have been sustained in the rest of 3Q by increases in manufacturing and export orders, and improving consumer confidence.

The outlook for trade in goods depends on the extent of new restrictions aimed at preventing the spread of the virus, especially those affecting manufacturing and supply chains. Some capacity constraints remain in ocean freight, relating to container and equipment shortages. Air freight has seen large reductions in cargo capacity with the restrictions on passenger travel. Travel-related services fell 26% in 1Q and are likely to have remained low, while other traded services, including manufacturing services like processing and assembly, and commercial services, are likely to be tracking the recovery in goods trade.