Romania: Lending speeds up in October
Adjusted for FX effects, credit growth expanded by 7.1% year-on-year. Corporate FX loans could be back in vogue as the EUR/RON remains remarkably stable
Retail lending remains robust but it’s not all rosy
Retail loans grew 11.3% year-on-year and the share of RON lending in total retail loans reached a record 71.2% in October. Consumer loans in local currency accelerated by 18.9% YoY, the fastest pace since December 2015. RON mortgage lending on the other side - despite still holding strong at 33.4% YoY growth – marked the ninth consecutive slowdown, now reaching growth levels last seen in mid-2013.
Retail lending growth by currency
Corporate loans rise
Corporate loans accelerated 3.3% year-on-year in October from 2.7% in the previous month. This is mainly on the back of better hard currency loans, where the contraction slowed to just -0.4%, a number similar to that seen in late 2012. This increased the share of FX lending in total corporate loans from 40.6% in September to 41.0% in October, so far validating our call for a mild recovery in hard currency loans.
Corporate lending
Again and again, this year’s lending data has confirmed that central bank tightening hasn't appeared to have much effect on lending but has cooled down inflation to some extent. A rush on consumer loans is still possible before the macro-prudential measures aimed at limiting retail clients indebtedness go into effect starting 1 January 2019.