Romania: Industry slows in September

Today’s industrial production data confirms the weak prospects for third quarter GDP growth, which we expect to go down to 3.0% confirming that even the recently updated official growth forecast is too optimistic

Despite the marginally improved confidence indicators, the Romanian industry ended the third quarter on a weak note. Industrial production slowed down from 5.5% year-over-year in August to 4.0% in September and ended 3Q18 with a -0.2% quarterly sequential contraction. Manufacturing led the slowdown as it contracted by -2.0% versus the previous quarter. The mining sector contracted as well by -1.4%, overshadowing a 1.1% expansion of the energy sector.

Compared with September 2017, the 4.0% seasonally adjusted growth confirms the stabilisation of industrial production in the low single digit area. With the October 2018 confidence indicators pointing south again, a mediocre outlook for Romanian industry remains the best case.

Weak prospects ahead

Manufacturing confidence

Today’s data confirms the weak prospects for third quarter GDP growth and we expect it to slow down to 3.0%YoY and confirm that even the recently updated official growth forecast is too optimistic.