Polish economy grows by 3.6% in 2025, and there’s more strength ahead

Poland's GDP grew by 3.6% in 2025, compared to a 3.0% increase in 2024, exactly as we forecasted. The growth was more balanced than in the previous year, driven by both public and private consumption, with investments contributing 0.7 percentage points, whereas in 2024 they had dragged growth down by 0.2 percentage points.

Throughout 2025, total consumption rose by 3.9%, following 4.4% in the previous year, while household consumption accelerated to 3.7% from 2.9% in 2024. Investments increased by 4.2%, in contrast to a 0.9% decline the year before. Net exports made a slightly negative contribution to GDP growth, at 0.3 percentage points, compared to a negative 1.2 percentage points contribution in 2024. In terms of growth structure for 2025, the positive surprise was the dynamics of private consumption, whereas the relatively low increase in investment disappointed.

Based on full-year data, we estimate that real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 accelerated to 4%YoY, up from 3.8% in Q3 2025. Private consumption increased by around 4% year-on-year, compared to 3.5% the previous quarter, but the pace of investment growth slowed to around 4.2%YoY in Q4 2025 from 7.1% in the previous quarter. The negative contribution from inventories amounted to roughly 0.6 percentage points, while net exports contributed a modest positive 0.1 percentage points.

The data indicate that the economic recovery in the second half of 2025 was gaining momentum, with consumer activity improving even after a strong result in Q3 2025. Investment grew at a slower pace than expected, as the absorption of EU funds by final beneficiaries was relatively sluggish, with a concentration of payments expected in 2026.

December data from the Polish economy suggest that economic growth is becoming increasingly diversified and is starting to rely more heavily on investment.

We forecast that GDP growth in 2026 will accelerate slightly to 3.7%. We expect the rate of household consumption to remain above 3%, despite a marked slowdown in the growth of disposable income. The continued increase in private consumption should be accompanied by a further rebound in investment, largely thanks to funds flowing into the economy from the Resilience and Recovery Plan and the gradually rising absorption of cohesion funds from the 2021-27 financial perspective.

We also anticipate an acceleration of economic activity in Germany in 2026, on the back of cyclical factors and thanks to a fiscal stimulus package. Today's data on Germany's GDP for Q4 2025 suggest a growth rate of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, indicating further recovery in 2026. As a result, the balance of risks for our 2026 GDP forecast is tilted slightly upwards (towards a higher reading).