Philippines: Current account gap widens in first half
Strong domestic demand has driven imports higher, pushing the current account gap to $3.1 billion in the first half of the year, or -1.9% of GDP. We expect the deficit to deteriorate further to between -2.3% and -2.9% of GDP
-$3.1bn |
1H current accountEquivalent to -1.9% of GDP |
Current account gap deteriorates
Strong domestic demand has driven the current account imbalance through higher imports. Domestic demand jumped by 9.2% year-on-year in the first half from 6.7% in the same period last year. We expect domestic demand, on average, to grow by 8.2% in 2018 from last year’s 6.9%. Strong import growth reflects this with an average increase of 13% in the first half.
Exports, on the other hand, contracted by 3.4% in the first half. Weak exports and strong imports combined to push the trade deficit up by 61% to $19 billion in the first half of the year. Overseas remittances during this period only posted a 2.6% year-on-year increase to $14.2 billion, which is $4.7 billion short of financing the trade gap.
The shortfall is now the norm and drives the wider current account deficit. The current account deficit amounted to -$3.1 billion in the first half, which is the central bank's deficit forecast for the full year. We estimate this gap to be equivalent to -1.9% of GDP.
What's next?
The outlook is unlikely to show any improvement. We expect this year’s current account deficit to amount to between -$7.7 billion and -$9.8 billion or between -2.3% and -2.9% of GDP. This imbalance is increasingly weighing on the Philippine peso though capital inflows and a hawkish central bank could moderate or offset the weakening bias.
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Good MornING Asia - 17 September 2018 This bundle contains {bundle_entries}{/bundle_entries} articles