November UK rate hike still likely, despite sluggish PMI

At 53.6, the UK services PMI was a little better than hoped. But dig a little deeper, and the key takeaway for us was new business growth is at a 13-month low. With the current PMI roughly indicating growth in the 0.3% region, this latter point means growth over the next couple of quarters could be equally as sluggish.

Once again, political uncertainty was a key factor holding back growth. It's possible we see some recovery over the next few months. The fact the UK government is more united behind the idea of a transition period could help unlock some short-term investment. But a lack of full agreement on the terms or length of such an arrangement, or indeed the ultimate Brexit deal, is likely to keep businesses cautious.

Interestingly, the survey suggests consumer spending has been slightly more resilient recently. This corroborates the latest retail sales numbers, but with inflation set to stay noticeably above wage growth for at least the next few months, we suspect consumers are unlikely to resume their position as a major growth driver.