Snaps
15 November 2023 

Indonesia’s exports fall less than expected

Exports and imports fell less than expected leading to a bettter-than-expected trade surplus

Sudirman Central Business District in Jakarta, Indonesia
Sudirman Central Business District in Jakarta, Indonesia
$3.48bn

October trade balance

Better than expected

Trade surplus beats expectations

Indonesia's exports and imports fell as expected in October although both slipped at a less pronounced pace. Exports fell 10.4% year-on-year compared to the drop of 16.2% YoY in September. Lower global prices for mainstay exports of coal, nickel and palm oil contributed to the lower export performance. Meanwhile, imports were down a modest 2.4% YoY compared to -12.5% YoY reported in the previous month.

This resulted in the trade balance staying largely unchanged from the previous month at roughly $3.5bn, much lower than the record high in 2022 but better than the lows of less than a billion recorded earlier in this year.

Another decent trade surplus to help support the IDR

 - Source: Badan Pusat Statistik
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik

Better than expected trade surplus supports a BI pause next week

November's better-than-expected trade surplus indicates that there will be less pressure on Bank Indonesia (BI) to hike rates next week. BI increased policy rates at its most recent meeting in a bid to steady the rupiah, which was under significant pressure prior to the hike last 19 October. With the trade surplus beating market expectations of a $3.0bn level, we believe the improved external balance should be enough to stabilise the IDR with BI likely keeping rates untouched at the 23 November meeting.

Content Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more