Hungary: Slowdown in retail sales
Retail sales in April missed market expectations and were below the first quarter average
| 6.0% |
Retail sales (YoY)Consensus (7.5%) / Previous (7.2%) |
| Worse than expected | |
Adjusted by working days, retail sales increased by 6% year on year in April, below market expectations. This is the worst result in 2018 so far, but we are still optimistic, as it may be a consequence of one-off effects.
The worse-than-expected data could be primarily traced back to the early Easter effect, translating into growth of just 2.6% YoY in food shops. It's also worth noting that one-off disbursements such as bonuses in the public sector and vouchers for pensioners probably only had an impact in March. Automotive fuel sales remained robust, with the 8.6% YoY increase significantly beating the 2017 yearly average. Retail sales in non-food shops fit the trend of what we've seen throughout 2018, with 9.2% YoY growth.
Breakdown of retail sales (% YoY, wda)
While the April reading missed market expectations, there's no reason to worry. Continuous wage growth and a high level of households willing to spend will remain major driving forces for the sector. Against this backdrop, we expect more than 7% YoY retail sales growth in 2018 as a whole.
This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
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