France’s Macron outlines plan to boost vaccination
As the French president seeks to limit the rise in the number of new Covid-19 cases by making vaccinations compulsory for healthcare workers and introducing 'health passports', we think the new restrictions won't have a substantial impact on our forecast scenario for the second half of the year
Mandatory vaccination for health workers and restriction targeting the non vaccinated
President Emmanuel Macron gave a televised address last night as the Delta variant of Covid-19 surges in the country.
From 21st of July, to go to the cinema in France, you will be required to present a health certificate, proving that you have been either vaccinated, tested negative on a Covid-test or recovered from it. From the beginning of August, a health certificate will be required to enter shopping centres, café, bars and restaurants.
PCR tests will no longer be free of charge from autumn (unless obtained with a prescription), thus making vaccination a better choice budget-wise. Unlike other countries, France has so far opted for free testing for Covid-19 at an estimated cost of between 100 and 200 million euros per week to the social security system.
Vaccination will also be made compulsory for all healthcare workers by 15 September, after which sanctions will be imposed. Non-vaccinated health care workers will not be allowed to go to their workplaces or receive salaries after this date either.
A bold move
Last night's announcements come just days after the publication of a poll showing growing public support for compulsory vaccination (72% in favour of compulsory vaccination for healthcare workers and 58% in favour of compulsory vaccination for the general population). Since last November, this is a reversal of opinion when only 38% of respondents were in favour of compulsory vaccination for all.
After Macron's announcement, France's online health portal Doctolib.fr crashed because too many people were trying to book a vaccination appointment, at a pace of 20,000 a minute. This morning, 926,000 people booked a vaccination appointment - a record in France.
No change of our forecast scenario for 2H21
These new announcements are not likely to change our forecast scenario for 2H21.
Despite the resurgence of the Delta variant and the slowdown of the vaccination campaign in recent weeks, President Emmanuel Macron is betting on summer vaccinations to secure the recovery of the French economy and avoid any further sector closures.
The new restrictions on non-vaccinated people from the summer could reduce their visits to new places as the health pass is introduced. But this negative effect could also be offset by an increase in the number of visits by fully vaccinated people, who feel increasingly safe in these places.
Hotel, catering, transport and cultural services sub-sectors still haven't recovered
(Index 4Q19 = 100)
