Briefing Romania

The Romanian leu remained the regional outlier yesterday, with both the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint regaining some of the lost ground while the EUR/RON moved slightly higher, closing just below 4.7300. We see the pair stable today around 4.7300.

The weak US data triggered a mini rally yesterday, with ROMGBs among the beneficiaries. The back-end of the yield curve shifted 5-6 basis points lower, with the 10Y again on the brink of sliding below 4.00%, which should happen sooner rather than later in our view.

It’s back to business as usual on the money market as cash rates stay anchored around the 2.50% key rate.