Briefing Romania

The Romanian leu remained stable amid its regional peers' depreciation tendencies. We expect it to follow the trend with a lag, as usual. For now, 4.7300 remains the first target.

On the fixed income market, the curve steepened again as risk-off mood still persists. Today’s RON600 million Sep-2023 primary auction proposes a fairly illiquid ISIN, which should see less offshore demand. With the London market closed as well, we could see the bids at the higher end of the secondary market range of 3.60%-3.70%.

The beginning of a new reserve period finds carry close to the 3.50% Lombard rate. We see it gradually inching lower over the coming days towards, but likely above, the 2.50% key rate. The NBR’s deposit auction should meet prudent demand today.