Briefing Romania

The Romanian leu continues to display remarkable stability against the euro. The pair traded very tight again, just below 4.7650. The only data on the calendar that could potentially disturb this will be tomorrow’s GDP numbers, though we doubt these will make any dent in this stability story.

Curve-steepening resumed yesterday, on some minor selling interest in the back-end of the curve which inched 2-3 basis points higher. Coming in at consensus, October inflation data was pretty much priced-in. Markets will likely be eyeing GDP data due tomorrow, as a more pronounced economic slowdown could increase expectations for a monetary policy response.

As usual lately, not much is happening on the money market. Cash rates remain below 2.50%, with some light paying interest in longer tenors, just enough to move the 3M-1Y curve above 3.00% again.