Briefing Romania
The calm before the ECB
EUR/RON
Despite the relatively higher turnover versus the previous day, the EUR/RON continued to trade narrowly just above 4.7300 where it also closed. We continue to see the pair gradually inching upward as bond inflows diminish and fundamentals continue to deteriorate.
Government bonds
A very quiet market ahead of tomorrow’s European Central Bank meeting. With no meaningful surprises from today’s inflation data (August CPI came in at 3.90% year-on-year against market consensus and our forecast of 3.80%) we expect the market to stay in wait-and-see mode today.
Money market
It’s business as usual on the money market. If anything, the curve has steepened a touch – normal in our view – but implied yields are still within a fairly tight range, from 2.45% at the front end to 2.90% at the back.
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