Australian employment comes in strong
A 41K increase in employment in July - most of it full-time, does not really tally with thoughts of a near-term further easing from the RBA, or a much weaker AUD.
| 41,000 |
Employment changeJuly, up from -2.3K in June |
| Higher than expected | |
RBA may ease again, but this data says "pause"
We don't rule out further easing from the RBA before the year-end, but they have done a lot already, and today's strong labour data suggest that the Fed is more likely to be easing before the RBA moves again.
Full and part-time employment
Its a good 41K, not a bad one
The 41K employment change is even more impressive than it first looks as 34.5K of that total was full-time employment, and only 6.7K part-time. The consensus view was for only a 14K increase (ING f +37K). We were not too surprised by this data, which we find roughly follows a negative serial correlation pattern (in short, it saw-tooths).
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2%, but that was also well within expectations and came despite an increase in the participation rate.
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27 August 2019
What’s happening in Australia and around the world? This bundle contains 11 articles