Special report: Cup-o-nomics 2016

Football – especially large international tournaments like Euro 2016 – is great fun and no one should take it too seriously. Nevertheless, it’s clear from our findings that sports events can also shine a light on certain natural human foibles and tendencies.

In the ING International Survey – Cup-o-nomics 2016, around 1,000 people in each of 13 countries across Europe (500 in Luxembourg) were surveyed by online poll between 18 March and 6 April 2016. European consumer figures are an average, weighted to take country population into account.

Results indicate how people think about sport and how emotions in particular can affect choices. Many of us love to support our own favourite sports team or athlete – but how much of this is down to a natural home team bias?

Backing the home team
Many people may follow their feelings rather than make a rational decision when choosing who to support. When people are asked which team they will support, 64% of all respondents choose their own country. If those who don’t support a team are excluded, the share rises as high as 79%.

Many people may also offer support to neighbouring countries when asked to make a second choice.

However, when asked who they think will actually win, more people vote for Germany than any other team. Current champions Germany have won the FIFA World Cup four times and the European championships three times. Bookmakers in April also favoured Germany.

Yet our survey finds that those who support their home team also often expect them to win. Eighty percent of people in Italy and Turkey support their home team – the highest share in the survey. More than one in four Turks and Italians with an opinion expect their team to win – but bookmakers rate their chances much lower.

What is your team “worth”?
The Spanish team – which won Euro 2008 and 2012 tournaments – could be worth €658 million when the estimated transfer costs of all 23 players are added.

The most expensive player on the Spanish squad is mid-fielder Sergio Busquets (value €47 million). Busquets’ “value”, however, is less than half the highest valued Euro 2016 player: Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo, whose estimated worth is €103 million.

Will these estimated values be reflected in the final results? Until the final whistle is blown, nothing can be certain – which is, of course, part of the fun.

Still, our findings confirm that most people, however passionate, are only prepared to spend small sums at best to see their idols perform, or for the chance of a win for their national team. This reluctance to spend may partly reflect a difficult economic environment.

How much will people pay?
In all countries except Turkey and Poland, most people say they would not pay anything to see their team play if they made it to the final.

Turkey appears in our survey to be the home of the “super fan”. Not only do people in Turkey say they’d pay for a last-minute ticket to watch their team in the final, but they appear keener to sacrifice a portion of earnings or give up their mobile phone for a month to secure a win.

Home bias might be expected to play into a desire to make a sacrifice – as might other well-studied behavioural foibles, including overconfidence, loss aversion and availability bias.

While men (86%) are somewhat more likely than women (76%) to support a Euro 2016 team, most responses are broadly similar across age and gender. This may be a surprise to some observers.