Euro Credit Supply: Slow October but November will be significant

Corporate supply expected to be very significant in November

• Corporate supply totalled €27bn in October, driven higher by a larger amount in the last week of the month accounting for €11bn. The pipeline for new issues in November is hefty and we expect supply could easily reach our €400bn forecast from the current €373bn. Already a substantial amount has come in the first couple of days of the month. Given the large amount of supply to come, with likely already some profit taking and rebalancing, we expect to see some volatility in markets over the coming week and for spreads to reverse the recent tightening.

• On a YTD basis, Oil & Gas (€13bn), Real Estate (€31bn) and TMT (€77bn) show the largest percentage increases versus last year, at +78%, +59% and +57%, respectively. Corporate hybrids (€30bn) are also higher by 50% YoY.

Tech drives the large Reverse Yankee supply coming to market

• Among the new deals at the start of November was Alphabet, bringing a significant six tranche deal that totalled €6.5bn. This does not come as a surprise to us given the large amount of Tech issuers bringing Reverse Yankee bonds to the EUR market in 2025. There is a good cost saving advantage for these US issuers given the relatively tight and outperforming EUR spreads vs USD spreads. As it stands, Reverse Yankee supply in 2025 YTD is sitting at €64bn (prior to today’s deals).

• For 2026, we expect a similar picture as we forecast Reverse Yankee supply to hit €80bn. We expect a further underperformance of USD spreads while the cross currency basis swap should remain anchored around these negative low single digit levels. Tech issuers financing these AI and cloud infrastructure developments will remain a key driver of this supply.

Financials supply slowed down over October

• Covered bond issuances dropped significantly in October with nearly €10bn printed, just half of what we recorded for the month of September. This brings the 2025 YTD supply to €152bn, just €3bn short of last year. We expect a further €8bn to be printed in the segment over November.

• The slowdown is also noticeable in the senior unsecured segment, even if to a lesser extent, with €16bn printed over October and €197bn in 2025 YTD. We expect a further €10bn to be printed in the coming months. Only bank capital issuances remained stable in October with nearly €4bn and a YTD total reaching €55bn, up €5bn from last year.